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ACUS02 KWNS 100553

SWODY2

SPC AC 100551



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH

VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds,

and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley

vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds

and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia

into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon.



...Synopsis...

A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS

Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses.

The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as

the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A

steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the

Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. 



...Upper OH Valley...

A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized

clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east

of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should

have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides

with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops

within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the

Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000

J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow

becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance

supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale

growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward.

This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak

buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor

of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging

wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. 



...Southeast GA to central FL...

Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at

12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the

best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat

during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger

boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale

ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the

northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level

winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula.



...Carolinas and VA...

Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime

hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on

Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited

by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the

deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely

attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection

within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall

threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a

few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from

midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser

severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and

south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL

this cycle.



..Grams.. 04/10/2024



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