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ACUS01 KWNS 101243

SWODY1

SPC AC 101242



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024



Valid 101300Z - 111200Z



...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST

ALABAMA...



...SUMMARY...

Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the

central Gulf Coast States.  The potential will exist for several

tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging

winds.



...Central Gulf Coast States...

Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west

TX.  This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South,

eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream

short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley.  A 70-80kt 500-mb

speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS

Valley and over AL late tonight.  In the low levels, a maritime warm

front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in

part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ.  Strong upper forcing for ascent

moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread

showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period.  



A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely

intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens

across LA into MS.  A reservoir of rich moisture located over

southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy

(1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob).  Weaker buoyancy

and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the

nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the

northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower

severe coverage and storm intensity is expected.  In the area across

south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast,

the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of

the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. 

Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of

storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells

interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will

potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may

be strong.  For short-term details concerning the severe threat

through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412.  As this activity

spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is

forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle.  An environment supporting

severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop.  A

gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected

overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along

the northeast Gulf Coast.



..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024



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