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ACUS01 KWNS 101632

SWODY1

SPC AC 101631



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024



Valid 101630Z - 111200Z



...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST

MS...SOUTHERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms will continue along the Middle Gulf Coast today into

additional parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley through

evening. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of

which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds.



...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley...

At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of

severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast

Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong

convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern

half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer

low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat

limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate

coast.



A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is

likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general

east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line

and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing

ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank.

Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility,

along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident

with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional

WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are

expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida

Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level

jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move

inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this

morning's/afternoon's MCS.



Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms

could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse

rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the

ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley.



..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/10/2024



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