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ACUS02 KWNS 101727

SWODY2

SPC AC 101725



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1225 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN

OHIO INTO WESERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN

KENTUCKY ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND

PENNSYLVANIA...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds,

and isolated large hail are likely from northern Kentucky across

Ohio Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a couple

tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into

northern Florida, mainly from Thursday morning through early

afternoon.



...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough moving across the Southeast will phase with an

upper MS Valley wave, becoming an elongated, negative-tilt trough

late in the day from MN to GA. A meridional 80+ kt midlevel speed

max will precede the southern wave, ejecting northeastward toward

the Mid Atlantic during the evening.



At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves from TN toward

Lake Erie by 00Z, with a cold front extending southward. Well ahead

of the cold front, a expansive warm-conveyor will exist from

northern FL/GA northward across the Mid Atlantic, ahead of an

advancing dry slot. Substantial midlevel moistening will lead to

clouds and precipitation, which may tend to limit destabilization

over parts of the southeast.



Farther north toward OH, a secondary area of instability will

develop, owing to steep lapse rates and better heating. Strong

overall synoptic-scale lift here should result in an area of severe

storms near the surface low.



...KY...OH...WV...

Early day precipitation is expected from northern KY into OH due to

50 kt southerly winds at 850 mb bring moisture northward across an

initially cool air mass. Shortly after, strong heating is forecast

over much of eastern TN and KY, with boundary layer mixing and

steepening low-level lapse rates spreading north across OH and

western WV. The cold front will initially be slow moving, allowing a

prolonged warm sector. Cells are likely to develop by early

afternoon across KY and eastern IN, developing northeastward across

OH, WV, and eventually western PA. Forecast hodographs along with

sufficient instability support a supercell risk as instability

increases from the south, with effective SRH > 200 m2/s2. While

neither instability nor shear will be particularly strong, the

synoptic setup with deepening surface low and enhanced low-level

shear near the theta-e surge will likely favor several cells capable

of producing tornadoes. In addition, strong deep-layer wind speeds

will support fast moving cells or even bowing structures, with

damaging gusts possible.



...Southeast and Mid Atlantic...

A line of storms, possibly severe, will be ongoing ahead of the cold

front from southern GA across northern FL. A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE

is forecast, along with strong SRH with 300-500 m2/s2. As such, a

few embedded supercells, perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible.

The main mitigating factor will be poor low-level lapse rates/deep

saturated layers which may tend to reduce effective low-level SRH.

However, sufficient instability and warming ahead of the line during

the day could result in a few severe wind or tornado reports given

the strong shear.



..Jewell.. 04/10/2024



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