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ACUS03 KWNS 130730

SWODY3

SPC AC 130730



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0230 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE

SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to

central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very

large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are

possible.



...Central/southern Great Plains...

A shortwave trough should be centered on the southeast Great Basin

at 12Z Monday. Guidance is converging to multiple embedded impulses

ejecting east across the southern Rockies and Southwest, and onto

the central to southern High Plains by early morning Tuesday. This

fragmented evolution and consistently slower timing of ejection onto

the Plains appears less phased with the peak diurnal heating cycle,

suggesting convective development will be later and slightly farther

west than in prior outlook cycles. The southern and more vigorous of

the impulses will still yield substantial tropospheric flow

amplification as an intense mid-level jet evolves across northwest

TX into southern KS Monday night. 



Substantial lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains

Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z

Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf,

while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep.

Still, there is consensus that a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew

points should be advected ahead of the dryline across much of

western OK into western north TX and the eastern Panhandles. Dryline

initiation in this corridor may be delayed until after 00Z. More

widespread convective development should occur Monday night,

especially as the Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. The

relatively confined surface-based buoyancy plume and nocturnal MLCIN

with southern/eastern extent suggest initial supercells will

probably consolidate into multiple smaller clusters rather than an

extensive QLCS. Large to very large hail appears to be the

overarching threat given the steep mid-level lapse rates and

supercell wind profiles. The tornado threat will likely be focused

where low-level moisture is relatively greater and discrete

supercell mode can be maintained, seemingly centered around the

northwest TX and western OK vicinity. A swath or two of greater

damaging wind potential may evolve overnight given the amplification

of the flow regime, but will be modulated by weakening instability.



..Grams.. 04/13/2024



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