####018004404#### WTPZ32 KNHC 212039 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 ...NORMA HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 110.0W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo * North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe * Topolobampo to Mazatlan A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 110.0 West. Norma is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion should continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Norma is expected to move across the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight. Norma is forecast to move toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday and move inland within the tropical storm warning area on Sunday night or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Norma is expected to approach the west coast of Mexico as a tropical storm. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring within the hurricane and tropical storm warnings areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the west coast of Mexico by early Sunday. RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across much of Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart