####018005171#### WTPZ32 KNHC 201754 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 1200 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING NORMA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 109.5W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo * North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional watches or warnings could be required later today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 109.5 West. Norma is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast through Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, Norma is expected to approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and move near or over the area on Saturday. Norma is forecast to move toward the west coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night. Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). An automated weather station on Socorro Island recently reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Baja California Sur on Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias today and tonight, and in the watch area along the west coast of Mexico by Sunday. RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions of Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur. These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart ####018005227#### WTNT35 KNHC 201754 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 200 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023 ...CENTER OF TAMMY EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 58.9W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Dominica has issued a Hurricane Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Additional watches and warnings could be required later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 58.9 West. Tammy is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the northwest is anticipated by this evening, followed by a north-northwestward and northward turn Saturday night through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and on Saturday, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Tammy is expected to be a hurricane while it moves near or over portions of the Leeward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning later today or tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late tonight or early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Leeward Islands on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning later today. RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown