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WTIN20 DEMS 300650

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 30.04.2024

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND

THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF

30.04.2024

BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 30.04.2024.

BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND

ISOLATED W EAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF

BENGAL



 PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT

168 HRS:

24       24-48      48-72     72-96     96-120      120-144

144-168

HOURS    HOURS     HOURS      HOURS      HOURS       HOURS

HOURS

NIL       NIL       NIL       NIL        NIL         NIL          NIL



 NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY



ARABIAN SEA:

YESTERDAY\U2019S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH

ARABIAN SEA

LAY OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA & ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN

EXTENDING UPTO 4.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT 0000UTC OF TODAY, THE

30TH APRIL

2024 AND PERSISTED OVER SAME REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 30TH

APRIL, 2024.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO

VERY

INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA, MALDIVES AREA,

LAKSHADWEEP

ISLANDS AREA & COMORIN AREA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH

EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER W ESTCENTRAL ARABIAN

SEA

AND ISOLATED W EAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTHWEST &

EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:

24         24-48      48-72     72-96     96-120      120-144

144-168

HOURS      HOURS      HOURS     HOURS      HOURS       HOURS

HOURS

NIL        NIL         NIL       NIL        NIL        NIL

NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY



REMARKS: NIL.=