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WTIN20 DEMS 180645



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 18.12.2023

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND

THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF

18.12.2023

BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 18.12.2023.



BAY OF BENGAL:

YESTERDAYS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER COMORIN AREA & NEIGHBOURHOOD

EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS OVER THE SAME

REGION AT

0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 18 TH  DECEMBER, 2023.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND

ISOLATED

WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND

NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



 24       24-48    48-72   72-96   96-120   120-144   144-168

HOURS     HOURS    HOURS   HOURS   HOURS     HOURS     HOURS

 NIL       NIL      NIL     NIL     NIL       NIL        NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY





ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER COMORIN AREA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS

WITH

EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA

LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AREA AND WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER

CENTRAL & NORTH ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



 24       24-48    48-72   72-96   96-120   120-144   144-168

HOURS     HOURS    HOURS   HOURS   HOURS     HOURS     HOURS

 NIL       NIL      NIL     NIL     NIL       NIL        NIL





NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY=