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WTIN20 DEMS 030650



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 03.01.2024

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND

THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF

03.01.2024

BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 03.01.2024.



BAY OF BENGAL:

YESTERDAYS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF

SOUTH

SRILANKA COAST EXTENDING UPTO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS LAY OVER THE

SAME

REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, 3RD JANUARY, 2024.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL & MODERATE TO INTENSE

CONVECTION

OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED

ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



 24    24-48    48-72    72-96   96-120    120-144    144-168

HOURS  HOURS    HOURS    HOURS    HOURS     HOURS      HOURS

 NIL    NIL      NIL      NIL      NIL       NIL        NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY





ARABIAN SEA:



YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-

NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY OVER THE SAME REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED

CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION EXTENDING UP TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS AT 0300 UTC OF

TODAY, 3RD

JANUARY, 2024. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHEASTWARDS OVER

SOUTHEAST

ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. A

SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS RUNS

FROM THE CENTRE OF LOW PRESSURE AREA TO NORTH KERALA-SOUTH KARNATAKA

COASTS.



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM

CLOUDS

WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHWEST

ARABIAN

SEA, LAKSHADWEEP ISLAND AREA AND ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION

LAY

OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA & COMORIN AREA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:





 24    24-48    48-72    72-96   96-120    120-144    144-168

HOURS  HOURS    HOURS    HOURS    HOURS     HOURS      HOURS

 NIL    NIL      NIL      NIL      NIL       NIL        NIL





NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY=