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AXPZ20 KNHC 150836

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0830 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Colombia near 07N77W to 06N90W. The ITCZ 

continues from 06N90W to 06N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate 

convection is active from 04N to 06N between 90W adn 93W, from 

06N to 09N between 118W and 121W, and from 03N to 05N between

135W and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed mostly fresh NW

winds off the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro,

with strong winds noted near Punta Eugenia, between the subtropical

ridge over the eastern Pacific and lower pressure over central 

Mexico. NW swell of 8 to 9 ft continues to move along the coast 

of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds persist with 

moderate seas elsewhere, except for slight seas over the Gulf of 

California.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will persist off 

Baja California through the early part of the week between the low

pressure over central Mexico and higher pressure west of the 

region. NW swell of 8 to 9 ft will continue to move into the 

offshore waters of Baja California, reaching Cabo San Lazaro by 

late today, and the Revillagigedo Islands tonight, then subside 

below 8 ft through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and 

moderate seas will persist elsewhere through Fri.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh to strong gap winds remain active across the Gulf of 

Papagayo region, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh N winds

persist in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and 

moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 

Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua through Tue, along 

with a plume of rough seas reaching the offshore waters of 

Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE 

winds over the Gulf of Panama will continue through Tue night. 

Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist through late Fri.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A broad ridge is in place across the waters north of 15N,

supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of 05N and west of

110W. A surface trough is evident along the ITCZ from 02N and 

12N around 115W, associated with a mid to upper trough to its 

northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near

this front from 06N to 09N between 118W and 121W. NW swell of 8 

to 10 ft is reaching as far south as 20N, mainly west of 120W. A 

second group of S swell is reaching as far north as 12N west of 

110W, mixing with the trade wind flow. Meanwhile, a plume of 

moderate to fresh E winds and 8 to 9 ft seas in E swell emanating

out of gap wind events farther east is reaching as far west as 

110W from 08N to 10N. 



The northerly and southerly swell groups will mix along with

shorter period seas attributed to the moderate to fresh trade

winds to produce an area of 8 to 11 ft confused seas from 08N to

22N west of 110W by late today. Farther east, the plume of E 

winds and associated seas from the gap wind events will diminish,

but lingering seas will interact with SE swell of 8 to 9 ft 

south of 12N between 100W and 110W. These combined seas will 

subside through mid week, leaving only an area of 8 to 9 ft seas 

in the trade wind belt from 06N to 12N west of 130W by late week.



$$

Christensen