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AXPZ20 KNHC 151554

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Colombia near 07.5N77W to 05N102W. The 

ITCZ continues from 05N102W to 03.5N107W to 06.5N119W to beyond

04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 

from 01N to 05.5N E of 79.5W, and from 03N to 05.5N between 89W

and 96W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong

convection remains active from 04N to 12N between 113W and 126W,

and from 00N to 05N between 137W and 144W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Overnight scatterometer satellite data showed mostly fresh NW 

winds off the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, 

with strong winds noted north through west of Punta Eugenia. 

This wind pattern continues this morning, between the subtropical

ridge over the eastern Pacific and lower pressure over central 

Mexico. NW swell producing seas of 8 to 9 ft continues to move 

along the coast of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate 

winds persist elsewhere W of Puerto Angel, with moderate seas. 

Across the Gulf of California gentle to moderate NW winds

prevail, with seas 3 ft and less, except around 4 ft across the

entrance. Fresh northerly gap winds have been blowing all night

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and continue this morning, and

extend to about 75 nm offshore.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will persist off 

Baja California through the early part of the week between the low

pressure over central Mexico and higher pressure west of the 

region. NW swell of 8 to 9 ft will continue to move into the 

offshore waters of Baja California, reaching Cabo San Lazaro by 

late today, and the Revillagigedo Islands tonight, then subside 

below 8 ft through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and 

moderate seas will persist elsewhere through Fri, as high

pressure weakens west of the area.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Fresh to strong gap winds remain active across the Gulf of 

Papagayo region, with 5 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh N winds

persist in the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to near 03.5N.

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted 

elsewhere.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 

Gulf of Papagayo region, and across most of the coastal waters 

of Nicaragua through Tue, along with a plume of rough seas 

reaching the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. 

Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama 

will continue through Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate winds and 

seas will persist through late Fri.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A broad ridge is in place across the waters north of 15N,

supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of 07N and west 

of 110W. A surface trough is evident along the ITCZ from 02N and 

12N around 119W, with associated active convection supported by a

mid to upper trough to its northwest. Scattered showers and 

thunderstorms are active near this trough from 04N to 12N between

113W and 126W. NW swell of 8 to 10 ft is reaching as far south 

as 16N, mainly west of 120W. Southern hemispheric S swell is 

reaching as far north as 16N west of 110W, mixing with the trade

wind flow, and will soon begin to merge with the NW swell across

the region. Meanwhile, a plume of moderate to fresh E winds and 

8 to 9 ft seas in E swell emanating out of gap wind events 

farther east is reaching as far west as 110W from 08N to 10N. 



The northerly and southerly swell groups will merge along with 

shorter period seas attributed to the moderate to fresh trade 

winds to produce an area of 8 to 11 ft confused seas from 08N to 

22N west of 110W by late today. Farther east, the plume of E 

winds and associated seas from the gap wind events will diminish,

but lingering seas will interact with SE swell of 8 to 9 ft 

south of 12N between 100W and 110W. These combined seas will 

subside through mid week, leaving only an area of 8 to 9 ft seas 

in the trade wind belt from 06N to 12N west of 130W by late week.



$$

Stripling