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AXNT20 KNHC 151803

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1700 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia

near 05N09W, to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 02N17W,

crossing the Equator along 19W, to 02S22W 01S30W, crossing the

Equator along 34W, to 01N40W, crossing the Equator along 43W, to

01S45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated 

strong is from 07N southward.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A surface ridge passes through Lake Okeechobee in South Florida,

into the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico, toward the upper Texas

Gulf coast. 



Fresh easterly winds have been within 90 nm of the northern coast

of the Yucatan Peninsula during the last 12 hours or so. Moderate

or slower anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of

Mexico. Moderate seas are in the offshore waters of Texas from 26N

to 28N; in the offshore waters of Mexico from 19N to 22N in the SW

corner of the Gulf; and from the west central Gulf to the coastal

waters of the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Slight seas are in the

remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.



High pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong winds will pulse 

off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the next several 

evenings. Winds will become fresh to strong over the western Gulf 

on tonight into Tue. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas will 

prevail through most of the week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A surface trough is from the coast of Venezuela to 21N, and

curving through 66W/68W. The surface trough is on the eastern side

of an upper level Atlantic Ocean trough. Precipitation: isolated

to widely scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is from 18N to

20N between 64W and SW Haiti. Widely scattered moderate to

isolated strong is from 18N to 23N between 58W and 64W, from

200 nm to 480 nm to the northeast of the surface trough.



Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from 15N southward between

72W and 78W. Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from 17N

southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate and fresh SE winds are to

the east of the surface trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds are

elsewhere between the surface trough and 70W. Moderate and fresh

NE to E winds are from 80W westward. Rough seas are from 60 nm to

240 nm of the coasts between 72W in Colombia and 81W in Panama.

Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the open waters of the

Caribbean Sea. Slight seas are in the coastal waters of the area.



The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 

at 15/1200 UTC, are: 0.28 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.05 in 

Guadeloupe; and 0.03 in Trinidad. This information is from the Pan

American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.



Near-gale NE winds and seas to 11 ft off the coast of Colombia 

will dissipate today. Fresh to strong E winds will continue in 

this region through the next few days. Fresh to occasionally 

strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage, S of the 

Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for the next few days. 

Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas can 

be expected across much of the basin through the middle of the 

week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A stationary front passes through 31N58W, to 26N65W, to 23N70W,

and to Cuba near 21N76W. Rough seas are from 29N northward from 

70W westward. Strong NW winds are from 30N northward from 70W 

westward. Moderate to fresh NW winds are from the cold front 

northward. Mostly gentle to some moderate winds are from the cold 

front southward from 70W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered

moderate to isolated strong is from 24N to 27N between 67W and 

72W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 300 nm to the northwest

of the stationary front.



A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 34N31W. A dissipating cold

front is along 32N21W 30N21W 23N24W. A surface trough curves 

through 31N26W 27N28W 24N35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is

from 20N northward between 20W and 40W.



A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 53W/54W from 14N

to 23N. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and

isolated moderate, are from 14N to 25N between 50W and 60W.



Moderate to rough seas are from 05N northward between 20W and 50W.

Most of the rough seas are from 17N northward. Moderate to rough

seas also are from: South America to 27N between 50W and 57W; and 

from 18N to 24N between 56W and 62W. Moderate seas are in the

remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.



A stationary front extends from 31N58W to NE Cuba will gradually 

dissipate today. Large N-NE swell across the waters impacting 

Puerto Rico southward to the Leeward islands will linger through 

the middle of the week. High pressure will continue to build over 

waters N of 20N, bringing more tranquil marine conditions. 



$$

mt/era