####018005659#### AXPZ20 KNHC 152137 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from Colombia near 07.5N77W to 06.5N91W to 05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 07.5N120W to 07N133W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 84W and 107W. Scattered moderate to strong convection remains active from 04.5N to 11N between 113W and 126W, and from 05N to 08N between 126W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Afternoon scatterometer satellite data showed mostly fresh NW winds off the coast of Baja California south of Punta Eugenia, with fresh winds assumed to be persisting across the Baja Norte waters north of Punta Eugenia. This wind pattern continues between the subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific along about 130W, and lower pressure over central Mexico. NW swell producing seas of 7 to 9 ft continues to move through the Baja near and offshore waters, with early afternoon altimeter data showing peak seas of 9 to 11 ft across the offshore waters between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas of 6 ft or less are elsewhere W of Puerto Angel. Across the Gulf of California mostly moderate NW winds prevail, with seas 3 ft and less, except around 4 ft across the entrance to the Gulf. Northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished to less than 15 kt, and extend to about 90 nm offshore. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds will prevail across the Baja California near and offshore waters through late this evening, then diminish to moderate to fresh through Tue evening. NW swell of 7 to 10 ft will continue to move across the offshore waters of Baja California, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands tonight, then gradually subside below 8 ft through late Wed. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere through Wed. Wind and seas will diminish further through Fri as high pressure weakens west of the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh gap winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region and into the southern Nicaragua waters, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh easterly winds then continue farther offshore of Papagayo, to beyond 93W, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Moderate N winds continue in the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to near 03N. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere, except 7 to 8 ft seas to the northwest through southeast of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, easterly gap winds will pulse to strong across the Gulf of Papagayo region and across most of the coastal waters of Nicaragua tonight, then diminish to moderate to fresh through Wed. A narrow plume of rough seas will extend westward tonight and Tue, reaching the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama will continue through Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist through late Wed. Winds will diminish further through Fri as a weak pressure gradient develop across the local region and the western Caribbean. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge is in place across the waters north of 15N, covering the waters between 110W and 150W. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of 07N and west of 110W. A surface low has develop along the ITCZ near 7.5N121W, where active convection continues to the NW through NE, supported by a mid to upper trough to its northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near this trough from 04.5N to 11N between 113W and 126W. A small area of strong NE winds is located due north of the low between 08N and 12N, where afternoon altimeter data showed seas of 10 to 12 ft. NW swell of 8 to 10 ft continues to move through the regional waters, and is reaching as far south as 13N, mainly west of 118W. Southern hemispheric S to SW swell is reaching as far north as 17N, and is mixing with the trade wind flow, and has also begun to merge with the NW swell across the region between 10N and 17N. Meanwhile, a plume of fresh E winds and seas to 8 ft in E swell emanating out of gap wind events farther east is reaching as far west as 95W from 08N to 10N. The northerly and southerly swell groups will merge along with shorter period seas attributed to the moderate to fresh trade winds to produce an area of 8 to 11 ft confused seas from 08N to 20N west of 110W by this evening. Farther east, the plume of E winds and associated seas from the gap wind events will diminish, but lingering seas will interact with SE swell of 7 to 9 ft south of 12N between 100W and 110W. These combined seas will subside through mid week, leaving only an area of 8 to 9 ft seas in the trade wind belt from 06N to 12N west of 130W by late week. $$ Stripling