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AXNT20 KNHC 171751

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Wed Apr 17 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1700 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa. The ITCZ

begins near 03N20W and continues to 01N35W and to 02N50W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 10W

and 20W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge off NE Florida

and lower pressures in Mexico result in fresh to locally strong

easterly winds south of 25N and between 89W and 96W. Seas in these

waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and moderate seas

prevail. A few showers are evident in the nearshore waters of

Texas, while generally dry conditions are found in the remaining

waters of the Gulf.



For the forecast, a subtropical ridge located between Bermuda and

the Bahamas and lower pressures in Mexico will support fresh to 

strong easterly winds pulsing off the NW Yucatan peninsula and 

south-central Gulf during the next several nights. Otherwise, 

moderate winds and seas will continue through most of the week. A 

cold front may move into the NW Gulf Sun and Sun night, followed 

by fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



The subtropical ridge centered north of the islands continues to

force fresh to locally strong NE-E winds in the lee of Cuba and

the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate 

to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are evident in

the remainder of the central and NW Caribbean and also in the 

eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight 

to moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, high pressure and associated ridging will 

prevail over the SW N Atlantic waters ENE of the Bahamas through 

the forecast period and will support moderate to fresh easterly 

trade winds across the basin, except for the SW and NE Caribbean 

where winds will be light to gentle. Fresh winds in the Windward 

Passage are forecast to reach strong speeds during the evenings 

today through Fri. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A prononced surface trough is analyzed along 61W, producing 

scattered showers between 55W and 62W, between 20N and 25N. The 

remainder of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the 

influence of a 1023 mb high pressure system located near 31N73W. 

The subtropical ridge is forcing moderate to locally strong 

easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft west of the trough to the Florida

Straits from 20N to 25N.



The central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad

subtropical ridge. The pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high

pressure system near 33N50W and lower pressures in the deep

tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of

20N. Wave heights in the area described are 7-10 ft, with the

highest seas near 11N49W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and

moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure and associated ridging 

will prevail over the SW N Atlantic waters ENE of the Bahamas 

through the forecast period. The pressure gradient between a 

surface trough analyzed NE of the Leeward Islands and the ridge is

supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of the Bahamas, the 

Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage. The 

trough will move E of the area early on Thu and winds over this 

region will diminish to moderate speeds. Scattered showers and 

isolated thunderstorms are also forecast over the aforementioned 

region through tonight. Rough seas to 8 ft north of the Leeward 

Islands will subside today. A cold front may move over the waters 

off NE Florida late Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms

could precede this front. 



$$

Mora