####018002587#### AXPZ20 KNHC 192020 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Apr 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N79W to 06N117W. The ITCZ is from 06N117W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 07N and E of 88W and from 03N to 10N between 110W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas persist along the coast and offshore waters of Baja California, between weak high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over central Mexico. Gentle winds and moderate seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds winds and moderate seas will persist through Sat. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds and building swell will follow a weak cold front into the waters near Guadalupe Island off Baja California Norte Sun and Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate S winds and seas to 6 ft prevail across the waters W of Ecuador. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, light to gentle breezes will persist across the region through early next week. Wave heights will be mostly 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell, building to 5 to 7 ft off Ecuador Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging persists N of 10N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical Pacific W of 120W. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft in this area, in mainly shorter-period easterly waves resulting from the trade wind flow. Light to gentle breezes and moderate seas are evident elsewhere. A weak cold front has entered the far NW waters, but is having no impact on sensible weather. For the forecast, wind speeds and wave heights will remain similar into early next week, with an area of 8 ft seas persisting from 08N to 12N W of 135W due to fresh trade winds and lingering swell. The weak cold front will stall tonight then dissipate this weekend. $$ Konarik ####018002358#### AXPQ20 PGUM 192023 TWDPQ Tropical Weather Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 623 AM ChST Sat Apr 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DISTURBANCE... A tropical disturbance is centered roughly near 4N157E. Converging surface winds and divergent winds aloft are producing extensive cloudiness and numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms across Chuuk and Pohnpei States, especially between the Equator and 8N from 154E to 161E. ...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS... NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...The Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) curves thru a weak and elongated circulation that is south of Koror at about 5N134E. patchy areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen mainly on the north side of the trough, especially between Yap and Koror. TRADE-WIND SURGE...Surging trade winds currently just southeast of Kosrae and just south of Majuro are causing numerous showers and thunderstorms in an area between the Equator and 6N from 165E to 173E OTHER SYSTEMS... A remnant cold front just north of the Mariana Islands runs from 25N153E to 20N144E to end near 16N138E. Clouds and patchy light showers are seen along and up to 30 miles northwest of this front. ...DISCUSSION... The tropical disturbance centered southeast of Pohnpei is more active than recent models have suggested and it will need to be monitored. A good flow of surface winds are converging toward the disturbance this morning, especially as the robust trade-wind surge arrives from across Kosrae State today. There is plenty of energy available for this disturbance to continue producing numerous showers. The circulation just south of Koror embedded in the NET remains weak and has really not moved much, but it should tend to drift slowly westward. It will likely be a focus for showers developing at times over Palau and near Yap for the next couple of days. The remnant cold front north of the marianas is weak and likely will drift toward the east-southeast slightly and further weaken. $$ Simpson