####018005151####
AXNT20 KNHC 200456

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0605 UTC Sat Apr 20 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0440 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern

Guinea-Bissau close to 11N15W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from

06N19W, to the Equator along 27W, to 01S30W and 03S40W.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is

from 07N southward.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1019 mb 27N76W

high pressure center, to an eastern Gulf of Mexico 1018 mb 27N84W

high pressure center, to the SW coastal areas of Louisiana. Broad

middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.

Broken to overcast middle level and upper level clouds are to the

west of the line that runs from the Florida Panhandle, to 26N86W,

to 18N95W in the SW corner of the area.



Fresh to strong E winds are within 150 nm of the northern coast of

the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or slower SE winds are in much of

the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are from 21N to 26N

from 90W westward. Slight seas are elsewhere.



High pressure extending across the basin from the western 

Atlantic will prevail through Sat, with gentle to moderate winds 

in the NE half of the basin, and moderate to fresh in the SW half 

of the basin. Winds will pulse fresh to strong in the evenings NW 

of the Yucatan Peninsula through at least Sat evening. A cold 

front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf late Sat night into 

early Sun, stalling and dissipating near 23N early next week. 

Fresh to locally strong winds and building seas may follow the 

front through Sun night. High pressure will again dominate the 

basin by Tue and continue into Wed night.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A 1019 mb sub-tropical high persists near 28N72W, and is 

promoting a weakened trade wind flow across the basin. Fresh NE to

E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted offshore of Colombia and

Venezuela, near the Windward Passage, and just south of the 

Dominican Republic. 



Slight to moderate seas are between 70W and 80W, and in the NW

corner of the area. Slight seas are elsewhere in the Caribbean

Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are moving through the Windward

Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds are within 210 nm of the

coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between 68W and 77W, including in

the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh NE to E winds are within 150 nm of 

the coast of Honduras from 83W westward. Moderate or slower winds

are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.



Broad high pressure N of the basin will support pulsing fresh to 

locally strong winds near the Windward Passage, S of the Dominican

Republic, and near the coast of northern Colombia through early 

Sun. Similar winds will return and pulse near northern Colombia 

Mon evening through Wed evening. Winds will pulse to moderate to 

locally fresh in the NW Caribbean through early Sun, then again by

mid-week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, along

with slight to moderate seas.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough is along 29N45W 26N50W 20N58W, curving to 10N61W

near the coast of NE Venezuela. A 1022 mb high pressure center is

near 32N31W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east 

of the 29N45W 10N61W surface trough. Broad surface anticyclonic 

wind flow is to the west of the surface trough. A 1019 mb high 

pressure center is near 27N76W.



Moderate seas are everywhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly fresh 

to some strong NE winds are within 200 nm to 300 nm on either side

of 21N18W 16N26W 14N33W 13N40W. Moderate NE winds are from 24N 

southward between 70W and 78W. Fresh NE winds are within 200 nm on

the NW side of the surface trough between 47W and 54W, and from 

22N to 25N between 59W and 65W. Fresh southerly winds are within 

240 nm on the SE side of the trough between 46W and 51W. Moderate 

or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. 



A surface trough from 22N55W to the NE Caribbean Islands will 

dissipate through Sat. Otherwise, high pressure from near Bermuda 

to E central Florida will prevail through Sun supporting mainly 

gentle to moderate winds. A cold front is forecast to move into 

the NW waters Sun night, reaching from 31N72W to near Jupiter, 

Florida Mon evening, from 31N69W to the central Bahamas Tue 

evening, then from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Wed evening. 

Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong near 31N, are forecast to 

accompany the front, along with building seas. Otherwise seas will

be mainly slight to moderate. 



$$

mt/jl

####018000584####
ABPW10 PGTW 200600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZAPR2024//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

NNNN