####018004775####
AXNT20 KNHC 222104

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2100 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Western Atlantic gale warning: A cold front extends from 31N74W 

to central Florida near 27N80W. Fresh to strong winds prevail W of

the front. Winds will briefly increase to gale force later this 

afternoon through this evening over the waters N of 29N within 120

nm W of the front. Seas will build to near 14 ft during the 

period of gale force winds. 



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 

Hurricane Center at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W

and extends southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W

to 01S41W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from

03S to 05N between 36W and 47W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front extends from SW Florida to 25N85W to near Veracruz, 

Mexico. Moderate to fresh to N-NE winds prevail behind the front,

reaching strong speeds over the far SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate

winds are found E of the front. W of the front, seas are in the 

6-8 ft range. E of the front, seas of 1-4 ft prevail. 



For the forecast, the cold front will push SE of the basin by 

this evening with conditions gradually improving. High pressure 

will dominate in the wake of the front through mid- week. Winds 

will increase by the end of the week as the pressure gradient 

tightens, which will also build seas. Fresh to strong winds will 

pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A weak pressure gradient prevails over the area supporting

moderate to locally fresh winds over the central and eastern

Caribbean, with light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean.

Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the central and eastern

Caribbean, and 1-3 ft over the western Caribbean. 



For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected 

across the central and eastern Caribbean, locally strong near the 

N coast of Colombia and near the Gulf of Venezuela midweek. Mainly

gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to 

moderate to fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, 

and offshore central Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may 

reach into the Caribbean N of 19N tonight, possibly bringing a 

brief period of active weather. Slight to moderate seas will 

prevail across the basin.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please read the Special features section for information on gale 

conditions expected across the NW waters.



A cold front extends from 31N74W to central Florida near 27N80W. 

A line of showers and thunderstorms is observed ahead of the 

frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-9 ft are

found W of the front. Fresh to strong winds are also observed N of

28N within 90 nm east of the front. A weak ridge extends SW from

high pressure centered near 34N48W to the southern Bahamas. Light

to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are along the ridge axis.

Farther east, a cold front extends from a complex low pressure 

area, with one center located near 32N32W and a second low center 

near 30N29W, SW to near 19N40W. Fresh to strong winds associated

to this area of low pressure is found N of 29N between 27W and

39W, where seas are in the 8-12 ft range. Elsewhere, winds are

generally in the gentle to moderate range with seas in the 4-6 ft

range. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front off Florida will 

reach from 31N73W to near Miami, Florida this evening, from just E

of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, then stalling and 

dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos 

Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas 

are occurring ahead and behind the front, mainly N of 27N, 

increasing to gale speeds N of 29N late this afternoon and 

spreading eastward through tonight. Winds will diminish below gale

late tonight. Seas will build to 14 ft with the strongest winds. 

The remnant trough is forecast to linger through the remainder of 

the week with mainly tranquil conditions for the end of the week. 



$$

AL