####018004329####
AXPZ20 KNHC 230800 CCA

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024



Corrected forecast for Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico

section



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0300 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from northwest Colombia to 07N79W to 08N89W,

where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to

the ITCZ and continues to 06N104W to 06N120W to 03N135W and to 

beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection

is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 115W-119W. Scattered

moderate convection is 05N to 11N between 120W-125W, and within 

60 nm south of the ITCZ between 122W and 123W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected



High pressure is present west of Baja California, with a ridge 

axis that extends southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 

Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough 

that is over the Gulf of California is allowing for generally 

gentle to locally moderate winds west of Baja California. The 

pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern slopes 

of Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong

winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail 

elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 10 ft range in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft over the remainder of the open waters off

Mexico, and 3 to 4 ft over the Gulf of California.



For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds winds and moderate 

seas will persist west of Baja California through late Wed. 

Winds will then freshen Thu through Fri. Fresh to strong gap 

winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through Tue 

before diminishing. Seas will peak to 10 ft tonight with the gap 

winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas will 

prevail. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are over most of

these waters, except off Ecuador, where seas are peaking to 

about 7 ft.



For the forecast, light to gentle breezes will persist across 

the region through the week. Seas will be mostly 4 to 6 ft 

primarily in SW swell, except 6 to 7 ft off Ecuador through 

tonight. Moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds will develop in

the Gulf of Papagayo Tue, then continue through the week. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure is analyzed over the waters north of 20N. The 

pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure 

in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade

winds from 08N to 15N between 120W and 129W and from 05N to 18N 

between 120W and 140W, where seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range due 

to a mix of long-period northwest swell and shorter period trade 

wind generated waves. Weak low pressure of 1017 mb is located 

north of the area near 32N131W, with a trough extending to 

30N131W, then southwestward to 28N133W and to 26N140W. No 

significant weather is noted with these system. Moderate to fresh

north to northeast winds are north of the trough along with seas

of 5 to 7 ft.

 

Elsewhere, mostly gentle trade winds are over the discussion 

waters. Aside from the seas in the tradewind zone mentioned 

above, seas are in the 4-6 ft range.



For the forecast, wind speeds and wave heights will remain 

similar through the week, with an area of 7 to 9 ft seas 

persisting roughly from 08N to 12N W of 130W. The aforementioned

weak low pressure is expected to move east-southeastward and 

enter the far north-central portion of the discussion waters on 

Wed. Moderate to fresh north winds will follow the low. These 

winds are forecast to reach westward to near 131W. Seas are 

expected to be in the range of 5 to 7 ft with these winds.



$$

Aguirre

####018006679####
AXNT20 KNHC 230803

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0730 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Central Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure, 1005 mb, is analyzed

near 29.5N34.5W with an occlusion and then trailing cold front 

wrapping around it through 31N28W to 22N30W to 17N39W. Scattered 

showers and thunderstorms are possible N of 25N within 60 nm NE of

the front. Gale-force winds were measured by an earlier ASCAT 

scatterometer pass, and a gale warning is in effect for the waters

N of 28N between 34W and 38W. Large seas up to 15 to 17 ft will 

accompany the gale winds, with a large surrounding area of fresh 

to strong winds and seas of 8 ft or greater. The low will 

gradually weaken during the next couple of days as it shifts SSW. 

Gale conditions will diminish this afternoon, then fresh to strong

winds will diminish early Thu. Seas will finally subside to less 

than 8 ft by early Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast 

issued by the National Hurricane Center at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes to the coast near the border of Guinea 

and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, extending southwestward to 03N20W. 

The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 02S31W to just off the coast of 

northern Brazil at 02S43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 

convection is noted along and S of the Equator between 24W and 

40W, and S of 03N between 45W and 50W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A dissipating stationary front extends from the Straits of 

Florida through 23N89W to the SW Gulf. A surface trough was

captured by and earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass just offshore of

Veracruz, Mexico supporting fresh winds and seas to 7 ft W of the

trough. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds are in the wake of

the front, along with subsiding 4 to 7 ft seas, except 2 to 4 ft N

of 27N. 



For the forecast, the front will wash out today. A trough 

offshore of Veracruz will dissipate later today. Otherwise, high 

pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting mainly 

gentle to moderate winds in the NE half of the Gulf, and moderate 

to fresh winds in the SW half of the Gulf through Thu. The 

pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf by the end of the 

week, increasing winds to fresh to strong across the basin. Seas 

will build as a result. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds will 

pulse NW of the Yucatan during the evenings. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A weak pressure gradient prevails over the basin supporting mainly

gentle to moderate trades, locally fresh S of 15N and E of 74W,

and also in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the S-central

and SE waters, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere, except 1 to 3 ft in the 

NW Caribbean. A surface trough extends through the Mona Passage 

with nearby scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.



For the forecast, broad high pressure north of the area will 

support mainly gentle to moderate trades through early Wed, 

locally fresh near the Windward Passage and S-central Caribbean. 

The pressure gradient will increase through the day Wed, with 

moderate to locally fresh trades dominating the basin through the 

end of the week and into the weekend. Winds will pulse to fresh to

strong in the S-central Caribbean and near the Windward Passage 

Wed evening and night, and in the Lee of Cuba Thu night. Similar 

winds are possible S of Hispaniola, near the Windward Passage, in 

the Lee of Cuba, and near the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. Slight 

to moderate seas will prevail through the next several days. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please read the Special features section for information on gale 

conditions in the central Atlantic near 31N35W.



A cold front extends from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida. A 

line of showers and thunderstorms is observed within 120 nm ahead 

of the frontal boundary, mainly N of 27N. Gale-force winds have

lifted N of the 31N as indicated by an earlier ASCAT scatterometer

pass, with lingering fresh to strong winds N of 29N between 66W 

and 77W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in northerly swell covers the waters W

of the front, with hazardous seas between the Bahamas and Florida

across the Gulf Stream. A surface trough is analyzed from through

the Mona Passage to N of Puerto Rico supporting nearby scattered 

showers and isolated thunderstorms. Away from the low discussed in

the Special Features section, ridging dominates the remainder of 

the waters W of 35W with mainly gentle to moderate trades, locally

fresh S of 22N between 40W and 65W. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft, 

except 3 to 5 ft N of 22N between 45W and ahead of the front. E of

35W and away from the low, mainly light to gentle winds and 3 to 

5 ft seas prevail, except moderate winds N of 10N west of Africa 

to 20W.



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds associated 

with the cold front N of 29N on either side of the front will lift

N of the area by the afternoon. Associated seas of 8 ft or 

greater behind the front will subside by Wed evening. The front 

will reach from 31N64W to the SE Bahamas this evening while 

weakening, then will become a dissipating stationary front from 

31N59W to 21N76W Wed evening, then becoming a remnant trough there

by Thu evening. The trough will linger through the end of the 

week, getting reinforced by a cold front which may dive S of 31N 

Fri night, reaching from 31N54W to near N Haiti by Sat evening. 

Increasing winds to fresh to strong W of the boundary will prevail

by Sat evening along with a rapidly building area of large seas.



The aforementioned surface trough near Puerto Rico triggered 

showers and thunderstorms since yesterday afternoon with total 

rainfall accumulation between 2 to 4 inches. The wet pattern over 

Puerto Rico will persist through the week, maintaining elevated 

potential for flooding, excessive runoff, and landslides. Please 

refer to the National Weather Service San Juan for more details 

about possible flood advisories and warnings in the upcoming days.



$$

Lewitsky