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AXNT20 KNHC 271031

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1030 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough is analyzed over Africa. The ITCZ extends from

03N16W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection

south of 06N and west of 25W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



The pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure system near

New England and lower pressures over the central United States 

and Mexico result in fresh to strong SE winds across much of the 

Gulf of Mexico. Seas in these waters are mainly moderate. The 

upper level trough over the central United States support widespread

mid to upper level cloudiness over most of the basin. However, no

deep convection is observed on satellite imagery.



For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a strong 

ridge in the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in the central US and

Mexico will support fresh to strong southeast winds over much of 

the Gulf through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak near 10 ft 

in the NW and central Gulf today and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will 

pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each 

evening through the forecast period. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A combination of a surface trough that extends across eastern

Hispaniola and an upper level trough over the western Atlantic

result in scattered moderate convection affecting the eastern

Greater Antilles and surrounding waters. Heavy rains and flooding

have been occurring in Hispaniola during the last week or so. It 

is possible that continual amounts of rain may help to increase 

the chances for flash flooding in inland areas, especially in 

hilly terrain and in low-lying areas. Please, refer to bulletins 

from your local weather service offices for more details about 

this event. Meanwhile, generally dry conditions are noted in the 

NW Caribbean. 



The pressure gradient between a strong ridge in the NW Atlantic

and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong

easterly trade winds in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba, off

southern Hispaniola and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters

are 3-6 ft and forecast to build to 9 ft later today. Moderate to

locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are present in

the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds

and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, a strong high pressure system centered off New 

England will force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of 

Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola 

through early next week. Seas will peak near 9 ft during the 

strongest winds. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will 

prevail in the rest of the basin. Northerly swell will push seas 

to 8 ft through the water passages in the NE Caribbean early next 

week.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough extends from 31N59W to eastern Hispaniola. A few

showers are seen near the trough. The 1034 mb high pressure off

New England sustain fresh to strong N-NE winds behind the surface

trough, with the strongest winds occurring between the central

and SE Bahamas and Cuba. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The

remainder of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge centered

near the Azores, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate

seas.



For the forecast, surface trough extends from 31N59W to 19N69W. 

The cold front north of the area will merge with the surface 

trough this morning and the front will reach from near 25N55W to 

Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken over the far 

southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind 

the front will build seas to a peak of 12 ft over northeast 

offshore waters by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of

the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds

behind the front from tonight through Sun. By late Sun, fresh 

winds will prevail in the wake of the weakening front and continue

through Mon. Tranquil conditions are expected Tue as high pressure

becomes centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with 

the induced gradient supporting fresh northeast to east winds over

the southern waters.



$$

Delgado