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AXPQ20 PGUM 272002

TWDPQ 



Tropical Weather Discussion

National Weather Service Tiyan GU

602 AM ChST Sun Apr 28 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between

the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is

based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,

and meteorological analysis.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



None.



...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...



TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...

A few trade-wind troughs are embedded in the western portion of the 

ITCZ, namely by Palau and Yap's western islands. The first trough is 

just off to the south of Palau and is producing a flare-up in 

convection. Cloud tops have reached up to -80C and has been producing

lightning and heavy rains. The second trough is between the Yap 

islands of Sorol and Eauripik. These two islands are on the northern 

flank of this trough. This one is producing pockets of moderate and 

deep convection.



...ITCZ...

An ITCZ has set up along 4 to 7 north and stretching from the date 

line to just east of Palau. Convection has been found on both sides

of the convergence zone. Lightning has been spotted with the pop of

the convection cells. Cloud tops are topping at around -80C, this 

indicates a deep core and potential heavy rains. 



COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE

A cold frontal boundary east of the Date Line transitions to a

shear line and enters the area of responsibility (AOR) near 

22N180E, stretching west and rounding a strong high pressure to the 

north, then curving northwest and exiting the AOR near 25N168E. A 

shield of low-topped showers are occurring along and north of the 

boundary.



...DISCUSSION...

The showers associated with the ITCZ/trade convergence and passing

trade troughs/surges are expected to last through the week, 

fluctuating north and south across Micronesia, giving much needed 

rain. This will allow a week disturbance set up southeast of Palau 

near the end of the week, however, it is still too soon to tell how 

strong it will be.



The trade troughs north of 15N will diminish and not bring much, 

if any, impacts to the Marianas or Wake Island.



The shear line will slowly creep south and continue to wash out, 

with showers diminishing



$$



Bowsher