####018005037####
AXNT20 KNHC 272139

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2120 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



West Atlantic Gale Warning: The National Weather Service in Miami,

FL has issued a GALE WARNING for coastal waters off of SE

Florida. 20 to 30 kt winds with gusts to 35 kt and 6-9 ft seas are

expected through 1500 UTC Sunday. For more information, please 

see local products at www.weather.gov/mfl and the latest High Seas

Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough extends from 12N15W to 04N20W. The ITCZ 

extends from 04N20W to 02N24W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate 

convection is found south of 05N between 10W and 50W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



A strong pressure gradient between 1034 mb high pressure centered

just offshore New York City and Boston and lower pressure over 

the Great Plains and Mexico is providing for fresh to strong SE 

winds across the Gulf of Mexico. In response to these winds, seas 

have built to 8-11 ft across the western Gulf of Mexico, and 6-8 

ft over the eastern Gulf.



For the forecast, fresh to strong southeast winds will continue

over much of the Gulf through Sun night before diminishing. Seas 

will peak near 11 ft in the NW and central Gulf through Sun. 

Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan 

Peninsula each evening through the forecast period.



CARIBBEAN SEA...



A surface trough extending west to east across Hispaniola and an 

upper-level trough over the western Atlantic are producing 

scattered showers and isolated tstorms across Hispaniola, Puerto 

Rico and surrounding waters. Heavy rains and flooding have been 

occurring in Hispaniola during the last week. While there is 

still a risk of localized flooding, the threat of heavy rain 

appears to be diminishing. Please refer to bulletins from your 

local or national meteorological service for more details. 

Scattered showers are also noted in the far SW Caribbean, mainly S

of 12N, due to the Equatorial trough.



Strong NE winds are occurring in the Windward Passage, off the

coast of SE Cuba and possibly near Jamaica. Strong E winds are

also likely occurring near the N coast of Honduras. Moderate to

locally fresh trades are elsewhere west of 70W, with gentle to

moderate E of 70W. Seas are 3 to 4 ft E of 70W and 4 to 6 ft

elsewhere, except 6 to 8 ft from Jamaica to the Windward Passage.



For the forecast, strong high pressure over the western Atlantic 

will support fresh to occasionally strong winds in the Gulf of 

Honduras, the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of 

Hispaniola through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh 

easterly winds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Northerly 

swell will bring seas of 8 ft through the passages in the NE 

Caribbean early next week.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 31N54W to 23N65.5W. Scattered showers

and thunderstorms are north of 30N along and E of the front. North

and west of the front, NE winds are fresh, including across the 

Bahamas and Straits of Florida. Within the Windward Passage, 

winds are at strong speeds. These winds across the W Atlantic 

waters provide for 6-8 ft seas north of 20N and west of 55W,

except 9 to 10 ft north of 29.5N between 61W and 68W. 1011 mb low

pressure is near 18N44W. A surface trough east of the Leeward

Islands and an upper-level trough are inducing scattered showers

from 18N to 25N between 46W and 67W. Most of the remainder of the

tropical Atlantic is experiencing moderate or weaker winds and 

5-7 ft seas. The exception is in the far eastern Atlantic, where 

some fresh NE winds are observed east of 30W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft 

are noted north of 29N and east of 25W.



For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front from 29N55W to N of 

Puerto Rico will move E before stalling and weakening over the far

southeastern waters late Sun through Mon night. Fresh to strong 

north to northeast winds will prevail N of 28N behind the front to

65W tonight through Sun, with seas building to 12 ft over the

waters north of 29N between 55W and 63W by early Sun. Fresh to 

strong winds will prevail over the waters S of 25N and W of the 

front through Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere 

into early next week. More tranquil marine conditions are expected

afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.



$$

Hagen