####018004697####
AXPZ20 KNHC 280847

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0800 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The equatorial trough extends from 09.5N74W to 09N90W to 07N102W

to 08N112W. The ITCZ continues from 08N112W to 09.5N118W to 

beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted

from 06N to 11N E of 89W, and from 03N to 07N W of 133W. 

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere 

from 03N to 10N between 80W and 131W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A 1030 mb center of high pressure located NE of the Hawaiian 

Islands extends a broad ridge southeastward to just south of the

Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge 

and lower pressures over central Mexico is supporting moderate 

to fresh NW to N winds across the Pacific offshore waters of Baja

California, and extend to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. Seas 

there are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell, except 8 to 10 ft across the

outer waters of Baja Norte. Gentle to moderate northerly winds 

are prevalent across the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 3 

ft. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft in 

mixed NW and SW swell prevail across the remainder of the S and 

SW Mexican offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec.



For the forecast, the strong high pressure will drift NE and well

offshore of California today through mid week, leading to a

weakening pressure gradient, and diminishing winds across the

area waters. Moderate NW swell will continue across the waters 

to the west of Baja California today, and increase Sun afternoon

through mid week as strong northerly winds expand across the

waters offshore of California. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft 

across the outer waters of Baja Norte early Mon, and gradually 

shift westward and increase further Mon night through Wed.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Scattered thunderstorms persist across the offshore waters 

north of 07N and E of 89W, affecting the near and offshore 

waters from the Papagayo region to coastal Colombia. Gentle to 

moderate SW winds generally prevail across this area, with seas 

of 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. Elsewhere W of the Papagayo 

region, winds are variable at gentle to moderate speeds with 4 to

5 ft seas. S of 07N to between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador

gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail, with seas of 5 to 7 

ft. 



For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is

expected to persist across the SW Caribbean through mid week,

leading to winds of moderate or less speeds across the area 

waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail through Mon 

before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 

waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, a more significant S 

swell is expected across the region Wed night through Thu.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

early nex

A 1030 mb center of high pressure near 34N140W extends a broad 

ridge SE across the offshore waters of central Mexico. The 

associated pressure gradient south of this ridge is maintaining 

fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 06N to 26N W of 115W.

Seas in this region are 7-10 ft in mixed N and NE swell. N of 

26N and W of 125W, winds are moderate from the N to NE, with 

seas in the 5-7 ft range in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate 

SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate, cross equatorial S 

swell prevail near and S of the ITCZ.



For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area will begin to

drift NE this afternoon through mid week. This pressure pattern

will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ

to 24N, and west of 122W through Tue. Seas there will remain in

the 7 to 10 ft range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 

ft are expected north of 24N through Tue, with northerly swell 

offshore of Baja California Norte building to 8 to 12 ft early 

Mon through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to 130W. Little

change is forecast across the remainder of the waters through 

mid week.



$$

Stripling