####018004233#### AXPZ20 KNHC 281526 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N100W to 07N110W. The ITCZ continues from 08N110W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 05N to 08N east of 95W, from 08N to 10N between 118W and 121W, and from 05N to 07N between 137W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered near 35N140W southeastward through the Revillagigedo Islands. Ship observations and scatterometer satellite data from the past several hours show moderate to fresh NW flow off Baja California, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes show 6 to 9 ft combined seas, mainly north of Punta Eugenia, likely with a component of NW swell. Gentle breezes and moderate combined seas in mixed swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the strong high pressure NE of Hawaii will drift NE and well offshore of California today through mid week, leading to a weakening pressure gradient, and diminishing winds across the area waters. Moderate NW swell will continue across the waters to the west of Baja California today, and build this afternoon through mid week as strong northerly winds expand across the waters offshore of California. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte early Mon, and gradually shift westward and build further Mon night through Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. This activity is mostly due to moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds well south of the region converging into the monsoon trough that extends across the region, along with weak divergent flow aloft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds persist across the offshore areas with moderate combined seas in southerly swell. For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through mid week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail through Mon before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is expected across the region Wed night through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1029 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 35N140W is supporting a large area of fresh trade winds farther south into the tropical Pacific west of 125W, as noted in recent scatterometer satellite passes and buoy data. These winds in turn are supporting 8 to 10 ft combined seas in the same area, as noted in concurrent altimeter satellite data. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. The convergent trade wind flow is supporting a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms near the ITCZ west of 130W. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will begin to drift NE this afternoon through mid week. This pressure pattern will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to 24N, and west of 122W through Tue. Seas there will remain in the 8 to 10 ft range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected north of 24N through Tue, with northerly swell offshore of Baja California Norte building to 8 to 12 ft early Mon through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to 130W. Little change is forecast across the remainder of the waters through mid week. $$ Christensen