####018003921####
AXNT20 KNHC 281623

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1610 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Western Atlantic Gale Warning: The GALE WARNING for coastal 

waters off of SE Florida has expired. Gusty winds have diminished 

below gale force since earlier this morning. Seas are less than 8 

ft. For more information, please see local products at 

www.weather.gov/mfl and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by 

the National Hurricane Center at website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues

southwestward to 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 01N25W to 04N50W. 

Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the ITCZ and

Monsoon Trough.



GULF OF MEXICO...



A strong ridge off New England is forcing fresh to strong SE winds

over much of the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 8-10 ft across the Gulf

north of 22N. In remaining waters, seas are 4-7 ft.



For the forecast, the area of high pressure will start to weaken 

on Mon, loosening the pressure gradient which will diminish winds 

and decrease seas across the basin. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to

fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula and south- 

central Gulf each evening through the forecast period. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



The aforementioned strong ridge in the NW Atlantic is also

sustaining fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the lee of

Cuba, Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.

Seas in these waters are 7-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring 

in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5-7

ft are noted in the south-central Caribbean Sea and remaining 

waters in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 

and 3-5 ft seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will 

gradually weaken over the next few days. As a result, the fresh to

occasionally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, the lee of 

Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola will diminish 

early this week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly 

winds will prevail. Northerly swell will bring seas of 8 ft 

through the passages in the NE Caribbean early next week.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 31N48W to 22N67W, then becoming a shear

line to western Hispaniola. A reinforcing cold front, in the

process of merging with the primary front, is from 31N50W to

25N68W. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8-12 ft are found 

over much of the SW North Atlantic behind the primary frontal 

boundary. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are 

occurring north of 27N east of the front to 42W. A couple of weak

surface troughs are analyzed east of the Leeward Islands. Seas are

4-7 ft in open waters, with gentle to moderate winds.



For the forecast, the cold front will move E before stalling and 

weakening over the far southeastern waters late today through Mon 

night. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will prevail N of 28N behind the

front to 65W with seas to 12 ft today. Also, fresh to strong 

winds will be prevalent over the waters S of 25N and W of the 

front today. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere into 

early this week. More tranquil marine conditions are expected 

afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters. 



$$

Mahoney