####018003470####
AXNT20 KNHC 282143

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Mon Apr 29 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2130 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N13W and continues

southwestward to 02N20W and to 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 

01N25W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection

is from 02N to 07N between 10W and 13W. Scattered moderate 

convection is evident from 00N to 02N between 20W and 28W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



A ridge extends from the Carolinas to Bermuda. Recent

scatterometer and altimeter satellite data along with buoy

observations show this pattern is supporting fresh to strong SE 

winds over much of the Gulf of Mexico, with 6 to 9 ft combined

seas.



For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken over the 

next few days, loosening the pressure gradient which will diminish

winds and decrease seas across the basin. Elsewhere, winds will 

pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula and 

south- central Gulf each evening through the forecast period. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



The aforementioned strong ridge in the NW Atlantic is also

sustaining fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the lee of

Cuba, Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.

Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft, with the highest seas occurring 

in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 

ft are noted in the south-central Caribbean Sea and remaining 

waters in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 

and 3-5 ft seas prevail.



For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic 

will gradually weaken over the next few days. As a result, the 

fresh to occasionally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, the 

lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola will 

diminish early this week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh 

easterly winds will prevail. Northerly swell will bring seas of 8 

ft through the passages in the NE Caribbean early next week.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 31N46W to the Windward Passage. Fresh 

to strong NW winds and seas of 8-12 ft are found over much of the 

SW North Atlantic behind the front. Fresh to strong SE winds and 

seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of 27N east of the front to 

50W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft combined seas

are noted elsewhere west of 50W. Farther east, broad ridging is

supporting moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft seas over the

eastern Atlantic south of 31N. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken over the

far southeastern waters through Mon night. Fresh to strong N-NE 

winds will prevail N of 28N behind the front to 60W with seas to 

12 ft. Also, fresh to locally strong winds will cover the waters S

of 22N and W of 70W through Mon. More tranquil marine conditions 

are expected afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the

NW waters. 



$$

Christensen