####018004718####
AXPZ20 KNHC 290853

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Mon Apr 29 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0750 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 10.5N84W to 08.5N104W.

The ITCZ continues from 08.5N104W to 09N120W to 06N129W to beyond

06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 

from 05.5N to 10N E of 102W, from 05.5N to 10.5N between 108W 

and 128W, and from 05.5N to 08.5N between 133W and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure centered near 35N141W

southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Overnight satellite 

scatterometer data showed moderate NW winds across the Baja 

California offshore waters. Seas across these offshore waters 

are 5 to 7 ft, as measured by recent satellite altimeter, except

8 to 9 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Gentle to 

locally moderate breezes and moderate combined seas in mixed 

swell are noted elsewhere S of 20N.



For the forecast, the strong high pressure NE of Hawaii will 

drift NE and well offshore of California through mid week, 

leading to a weakening pressure gradient, and diminishing winds 

across the area waters. Moderate NW swell will continue across 

the waters to the west of Baja California through mid week as 

strong northerly winds expand across the waters offshore of 

California. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft across the outer waters

of Baja Norte early Tue, and gradually shift westward, and 

increase further Tue night through Wed. Winds and seas are 

expected to diminish Thu and Fri as high pressure weakens 

further, ahead of an approaching cold front well to the NW.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Scattered thunderstorms continue across the nearshore waters of 

Costa Rica and across the Gulf of Panama. More numerous

thunderstorm activity has shifted well offshore of Costa Rica,

and west of 88W, aided by moderate to locally fresh S to SW 

winds south of the monsoon trough that extends across the 

region. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds persist across the 

offshore areas, N of 10N and the monsoon trough, with moderate 

combined seas in southerly swell.



For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 

expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late 

week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific

waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail through Mon 

before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 

waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is 

expected across the region Wed night through Fri night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1032 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 35N141W

extends a broad ridge SE and S across the regional waters W of

100W. This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh trade 

winds south of 23N and into the tropical Pacific west of 120W, 

as noted by recent satellite scatterometer data. These winds in 

turn are supporting 8 to 10 ft combined seas in the same area, as

measured with recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle to 

moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. The 

convergent trade wind flow is supporting clusters of showers and

thunderstorms near the ITCZ, generally from 06N to 10N between 

108W and 128W.



For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will begin

to drift NE through mid week. This pressure pattern will 

maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to 

24N, and west of 122W through Tue. Seas there will remain in the 

8 to 10 ft range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft 

are expected north of 24N through Tue, with northerly swell 

offshore of Baja California Norte building to 8 to 12 ft today 

through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to 130W. Looking 

ahead, the high pressure will weaken late in the week ahead of a

cold front moving eastward well to the north of the region. This

will allow trade winds to diminish through late Fri, although 

combined seas to 8 ft may linger over the tropical Pacific west 

of 135W.



$$

Stripling