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ABIO10 PGTW 291400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

REISSUED/291400Z-291800ZAPR2024//

RMKS/

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.6S

46.7E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291037Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE

DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AS

WELL AS A POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES

MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

(15-20KTS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SSTS (27-30C). GLOBAL

DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM

SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS

LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//

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