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ABIO10 PGTW 291800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/291800Z-

301800ZAPR2024//

RMKS/

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

6.6S 46.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7S 46.2E, APPROXIMATELY 349 NM NORTH-

NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A

291546Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH

FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL AS A POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH

MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) OFFSET BY GOOD

DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS

INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

IS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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