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ABIO10 PGTW 300100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

REISSUED/300100ZAPR2024-301800ZMAY2024//

RMKS/

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

6.7S 46.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6S 46.5E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTHEAST

OF COMOROS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A GMI

292043Z 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH A

LARGE CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS WELL AS A CONSOLIDATING

BUT BROAD LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS

WITH LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) COUPLED WITH GOOD DUAL

CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS

DEPICT AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS

THE LOW TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF TANZANIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE

IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO

MEDIUM.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO

MEDIUM.//

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