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AXPZ20 KNHC 300307

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0200 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N76.5W to 10.5N92W to 

09N100W. The ITCZ extends from 09N100W to 08.5N125W to beyond 

05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active

from 03.5N to 10.5N between 83W and 136W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



NW swell continues to gradually build across the offshore waters

of Baja California tonight, with seas across the outer waters of

Baja Norte from Isla Guadalupe northwestward now at 9 to 11 ft, 

and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere to the south. This swell is being 

generated by strong winds farther north and off southern 

California, between high pressure farther west over the eastern 

Pacific, and lower pressure inland. This pattern is supporting 

moderate NW to N winds off Baja California reaching as far south 

as Cabo San Lazaro, except fresh winds NW of Isla Guadalupe 

Island. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are noted 

elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters.



For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with 

large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west

of Isla Guadalupe through late Thu, with gentle to moderate winds

elsewhere off Baja. Moderate to fresh SW winds may pulse across 

the northern Gulf of California Tue night, following a 

dissipating cold front moving through the region. Elsewhere, 

mostly gentle to moderate winds will persist across Mexican 

offshore waters, along with moderate combined seas primarily in 

NW swell over open waters. Looking ahead, winds and seas will 

diminish off Baja California Fri and Sat as the high pressure 

NW of the area weakens.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Afternoon thunderstorm activity across land areas and the 

nearshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica has diminished 

significantly this evening, leaving active thunderstorms beyond 

60-90 nm offshore. Active thunderstorms continue this evening W

of 89W, where moderate SW winds are converging toward the 

monsoon trough. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes persist 

elsewhere across all of the offshore waters zones, with 3 to 5 ft

combined seas primarily in SW swell.



For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 

expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late 

week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific

waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will subside through 

tonight before new S swell raises seas slightly across the 

regional waters Tue into Wed. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell 

is expected across the region Thu through Sat. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure centered north 

of the area near 39N140W, and extends a broad ridge to the 

southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A weak surface 

trough continues to move slowly westward along the ITCZ near 

128W. This current pressure pattern is supporting a large area of

fresh trade winds south of 25N and into the tropical Pacific 

west of 120W, as noted by afternoon satellite scatterometer 

data. These winds in turn are supporting 8 to 10 ft combined 

seas in the same area, as measured with recent satellite 

altimeter data. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are 

noted elsewhere. The convergent trade wind flow is supporting 

clusters of showers and thunderstorms near the ITCZ, generally 

from 06N to 10.5N between 108W and 136W.



For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will  

drift NE through mid week. This pressure pattern will maintain 

fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to 20N, and 

west of 125W through Tue. Seas there will remain in the 8 to 9 ft

range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected

north of 25N through Tue, with northerly swell east of 125W to 

include offshore of Baja California Norte persisting at 8 to 12 

ft through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to 130W. Looking

ahead, the high pressure will weaken late in the week ahead of a

cold front moving eastward, well to the north of the region. 

This will allow trade winds to diminish through late Fri, 

although combined seas to 8 ft may linger over the tropical 

Pacific south of 14N and west of 135W.



$$

Stripling