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AXNT20 KNHC 300550

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0605 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0630 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues

southwestward to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to 00N30W 

to 02S42W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 

observed from 00N to 05N between 10W and 20W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



An outflow boundary continues to support a line of strong 

thunderstorms moving across the northwest Gulf. This activity is 

starting to weaken, but frequent lightning, strong gusts, and 

locally rough seas are ongoing. A 1023 mb high pressure between 

Bermuda and the Bahamas support moderate to fresh SE winds over 

much of the Gulf, except for strong winds off northern and western

Yucatan. Moderate SE flow is evident elsewhere between 1021 mb 

high pressure over the western Atlantic and a trough over central 

Mexico. Combined seas across the Gulf are generally 5 to 7 ft,

except within the strong winds associated with the outflow

boundary, seas are 8 to 9 ft.



For the forecast, the aforementioned high-pressure will weaken 

over the next couple of days, resulting in diminishing winds and 

seas across the basin. Winds and seas will increase late this week

in the western half of the Gulf, pulsing to strong speeds at 

night near the Yucatan Peninsula and south- central Gulf into the 

weekend. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates mostly moderate to 

fresh winds within the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. 

An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas to 8 ft off 

Belize. Moderate winds and combined seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere 

across the basin. No significant convection is noted across the 

basin.



For the forecast, the high pressure located between the Bahamas 

and Bermuda will gradually weaken over the next few days. Fresh to

locally strong easterly winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras, 

Windward Passage, offshore southern Hispaniola and NW Colombia 

will diminish by Wed. Northerly swell will support rough seas 

through the passages in the NE Caribbean through Wed. Otherwise, 

gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast for the eastern 

half of the Caribbean Thu and Fri while light to gentle winds will

dominate elsewhere. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The pressure gradient between high pressure near 31N73W and lower

pressures over the southern Caribbean supports fresh to strong

easterlies over the Bahamas, south of 24N and west of 70W. A cold

front extends from 31N40W to 21N50W. A shear line continues SW 

from the end of the cold front to near St. Martin. Fresh to strong

NE winds are north of the shear line to 22N, where seas are 6 to 8

ft. 8 to 13 ft seas follow the front north of 22N between 45W and

65W. Elsewhere behind the front, moderate winds and seas are

noted. 



Farther east, fresh to strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas 

are noted east of 35W over the eastern Atlantic, south of a strong

ridge over of the Azores. 



For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NW winds behind 

the cold front will continue to affect the waters north of 28N

between 55W and 65W through Tue evening. Long period northerly 

swell with peak seas to 14 ft will start subsiding tonight as the 

front continues to shift eastward. Moderate to fresh easterly 

winds will continue over the waters S of 24N and W of 60W through 

Wed, especially in the approaches of the Windward Passage. More 

tranquil marine conditions are expected afterwards as high 

pressure becomes centered over the NW waters. 



$$

Mora