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AXPZ20 KNHC 300844

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0800 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N75W to 08N80W to 11N93W to 

08N101W. The ITCZ extends from 08N101W to 08.5N117W to 05N132W to 

beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is

noted from 03N to 08N between 79W and 87W. Scattered moderate to

strong convection is noted from 06N to 10.5N between 92W and 

120W, and from 03N to 06N between 127W and 133W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



NW swell continues to gradually build across the offshore waters

of Baja California tonight, with recent satellite altimeter data

indicating seas across the outer waters of Baja Norte from Isla 

Guadalupe northwestward now at 9 to 11 ft, and 5 to 8 ft 

elsewhere to the south. This swell is being generated by strong 

winds farther north and off central and southern California, 

between high pressure farther west over the eastern Pacific, and 

lower pressure inland. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate

NW to N winds off Baja California, except fresh winds NW of Isla

Guadalupe Island. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 5 ft seas 

are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters.



For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with 

large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west

of Isla Guadalupe through late Thu, with gentle to moderate winds

elsewhere off Baja. Moderate SW winds may pulse to fresh across 

the northern Gulf of California Tue night, ahead of a 

dissipating cold front moving into the region. Elsewhere, mostly

gentle to moderate winds will persist across Mexican offshore 

waters, along with moderate combined seas primarily in NW swell 

over open waters. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish off

Baja California Fri and Sat as the high pressure NW of the area 

weakens. Another cold front is expected to enter the Baja Norte

waters early Sun. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A few small clusters of showers and thunderstorms have developed

in recent hours across the near shore waters of Panama and Costa

Rica. More active thunderstorms continue tonight well offshore of

the area W of 90W, where moderate SW winds are converging toward

the monsoon trough. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes persist 

elsewhere across all of the offshore waters zones, with 3 to 5 ft

combined seas primarily in SW swell.



For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 

expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late 

week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific

waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will continue tonight 

before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 

waters Tue into Wed. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is 

expected across the region Thu through Sat. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure centered north 

of the area near 38N137W, and extends a broad ridge southeastward 

to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A weak surface trough 

continues to move slowly westward along the ITCZ near 130W,

generating a clusters of moderate to strong thunderstorms. This 

current pressure pattern is supporting a large area of fresh 

trade winds south of 25N and into the tropical Pacific west of 

129W, as noted by recent satellite scatterometer data. These 

winds in turn are supporting 8 to 10 ft combined seas in the same

area, as measured with recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle 

to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. The 

convergent trade wind flow is supporting clusters of showers and 

thunderstorms near the ITCZ, generally from 06N to 10N between 

99W and 133W.



For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will  

drift NE through mid week. This pressure pattern will maintain 

fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to around 20N,

and west of 122W through Tue. Seas there will remain in the 8 to

10 ft range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are 

expected north of 25N through Tue, with northerly swell east of 

125W to include offshore of Baja California Norte persisting at 8

to 12 ft through Wed, while gradually spreading westward to 

130W. Looking ahead, the high pressure will weaken late in the 

week ahead of a cold front moving eastward, well to the north of 

the region. This will allow trade winds to diminish through late 

Fri, although combined seas to 8 ft may linger over the tropical 

Pacific south of 14N and west of 135W. A new cold front is

expected to sink southward into the northern waters late Sat

through Sun, followed by moderate NW swell. 



$$

Stripling