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AXNT20 KNHC 301031

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1025 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of

Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 06N22W. 

The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 01N31W to 02S43W. Scattered 

moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 05N and

east of 45W.



GULF OF MEXICO...



A few showers are noted in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in

association with a decaying outflow boundary. A 1021 mb high

pressure system in the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf and

sustaining moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds over much of the

basin. Seas of 5-8 ft are occurring west of 85W and south of 25N,

while 2-5 ft seas are found elsewhere.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned 

ridge and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will support fresh 

to occasionally strong winds in the western half of the Gulf Wed 

night into the weekend. Winds will pulse to strong speeds nightly 

in offshore Yucatan and the south-central Gulf waters. Moderate or

weaker winds will prevail in the eastern half of the Gulf. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



Pockets of low-level moisture dot the Caribbean Sea, producing

isolated showers. High pressure north of the islands supports

moderate to fresh easterly winds across the basin, pulsing to

strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage and

offshore southern Hispaniola. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central

Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras.

Northerly swell is pushing through the water passages in the NE

Caribbean resulting in seas of 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge is expected to slide 

eastward and weaken over the next few days, resulting in more 

tranquil marine conditions midweek and into the weekend. Northerly

swell will support rough seas through the passages in the NE 

Caribbean through Wed. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 31N41W to 21N50W, where it becomes a

shear line that continues to the NE Caribbean. Scattered moderate

convection is found ahead of the front, north of 27N. Fresh to

strong southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present ahead of the

front to 35W and north of 26N. 



The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge

located between Bermuda and the Bahamas. The pressure gradient

between the ridge and a cold front north of Bermuda sustain fresh

to locally strong westerly winds north of 29N and between 55W and

67W. Seas in the area described are 9-12 ft. Moderate to fresh 

easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are evident south of 24N and 

west of 55W. In the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, moderate 

or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas are prevalent.



In the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high

pressure system near the Azores is the most prominent feature. The

pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in

western Africa sustain fresh to strong easterly winds north of 15N

and east of 30W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere,

moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast west of 55W, a 1021 mb high pressure system 

located between Bermuda and the Bahamas dominates the SW N 

Atlantic. Moderate to locally strong W winds and long period 

northerly swell with peak seas near 12 ft are affecting the waters

N of 29N and E of 67W. These winds and seas will slide eastward 

as a cold front enters the northern waters this afternoon. 

Moderate to locally strong easterly winds will continue over the 

waters S of 24N and W of 60W through Wed, especially in the 

approaches of the Windward Passage. More tranquil marine 

conditions are expected afterwards as high pressure becomes 

centered over the NW waters. 



$$

Delgado