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AXPZ20 KNHC 301527

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N95W to 08N105W. The

ITCZ continues from 08N105W to 09N125W, and from 07N131W to 

beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection

is noted from 05N to 08N between 81W and 84W, from 10N to 12N

between 86W and 88W, and within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ

between 100W and 120W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Recent altimeter satellite passes confirm large NW persists off

Baja California Norte this morning, beyond 90 nm offshore, with

wave heights at least 11 ft west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to

fresh winds continue off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro,

between high pressure north of the area, and lower pressure 

inland. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas persist

elsewhere across the open offshore waters of Mexico, with light 

breezes and slight seas across the Gulf of California.



For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with large NW swell

will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west of Isla Guadalupe

into Sat, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere off Baja. 

Moderate SW winds will pulse to fresh across the northern Gulf of

California Tue night, ahead of a dissipating cold front moving 

into the region. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds will 

persist across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate 

combined seas primarily in NW swell over open waters. Looking 

ahead, winds and seas will diminish off Baja California by Sun as

the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell subsides. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate SW flow is supporting a few clusters of showers and

thunderstorms across the offshore waters from western Panama to

off southwest Nicaragua. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes 

persist elsewhere across all of the offshore waters zones, with 3

to 5 ft combined seas primarily in SW swell.



For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 

expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late 

week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific

waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will continue tonight 

before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 

waters Tue into Wed. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is 

expected across the region Thu through Sat. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure centered well north

of the area near 38N137W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo

Islands. The ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds

north of 05N and west of 120W. Recent altimeter satellite passes

confirmed combined seas of 7 to 10 ft from 05N to 25N west of

130W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted north of 25N 

between 120W and 130W between the high pressure and lower 

pressure farther east. NW swell of 8 to 12 ft accompanies these 

winds. Farther south, a weak surface trough continues to move 

slowly westward along the ITCZ near 130W, but has also shift west

of its supporting upper trough along 120W. Divergent flow aloft 

between this upper trough and and upper ridge farther east is 

working with low level trade wind convergence to support clusters

of shower and thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 100W and 

120W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in 

mixed swell persist elsewhere. 



For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern or

resultant conditions are expected through mid week. Winds and

seas will diminish later in the week as the high pressure

weakens ahead of an approaching cold front. 



$$

Christensen