####018004890####
AXNT20 KNHC 301614

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1614 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of

Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 05N22W. 

The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 02N34W to 01S45W. Scattered 

moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 06N 

and east of 45W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Isolated to scattered moderate convection is depicted in the 

eastern and western Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface 

trough. A ridge of high pressure associated with a 1022 mb high 

pressure system in the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf 

and is sustaining gentle to moderate E-SE winds over much of the 

basin. Seas of 5-7 ft are occurring west of 85W and south of 

25N, while 2-5 ft seas are found elsewhere.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and 

lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will support fresh to 

occasionally strong winds in the western half of the Gulf Wed 

night into the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in 

the eastern half of the Gulf. Winds will pulse to strong speeds 

nightly near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local 

effects induced by a thermal trough.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Pockets of low-level moisture in the Caribbean Sea are producing 

isolated moderate convection north of Jamaica. High pressure 

north of the islands supports moderate to fresh easterly winds 

across the basin, pulsing to strong speeds in the Gulf of 

Honduras, Windward Passage and offshore southern Hispaniola. 

Seas are 4-7 ft in the central Caribbean, including the Windward 

Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Northerly swell is pushing 

through the water passages in the NE Caribbean resulting in seas 

of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, a 1022 mb high pressure system north of the 

area supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much 

of the Caribbean Sea. Strong speeds are found in the Gulf of 

Honduras, offshore southern Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. 

The ridge is expected to slide eastward and weaken over the next 

few days, resulting in more tranquil marine conditions midweek 

and into the weekend. Northerly swell will support rough seas 

through the passages in the NE Caribbean through Wed.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 31N39W to 25N43W, then it becomes 

stationary to 22N50W. It is at 22N50W where it becomes a shear 

line that continues to the NE Caribbean. Scattered moderate 

convection is found ahead of the front, north of 25N. Fresh to

strong southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present ahead of 

the front to 35W and north of 27N. 



A 1022 mb high pressure system located between Bermuda

and the Bahamas dominates the SW N Atlantic. The pressure 

gradient between the ridge and a cold front north of Bermuda 

sustain fresh to locally strong westerly winds north of 30N and 

between 51W and 59W. Seas in the area described are 9-11 ft. 

Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are evident 

south of 22N and west of 55W. In the remainder of the SW North 

Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas 

are prevalent.



In the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high

pressure system near the Azores is the most prominent feature. 

The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in 

western Africa sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds north of 

15N and east of 30W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. 

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast west of 55W, a 1022 mb high pressure system 

located between Bermuda and the Bahamas dominates the SW N 

Atlantic. Moderate to fresh W winds and long period northerly 

swell with peak seas near 12 ft are affecting the waters N of 

29N and E of 65W. These marine conditions will slide eastward as 

a cold front reaches the NE waters later today. Moderate to 

fresh easterly winds will continue over the waters S of 24N and 

W of 60W through Wed, especially in the approaches of the 

Windward Passage. More tranquil marine conditions are expected 

afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.



$$

KRV