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AXPZ20 KNHC 302029

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2020 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N95W to 08N105W. The

ITCZ continues from 08N105W to 07N115W to 09N125W, and from 

07N131W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 

convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 97W and 105W.

Scattered moderate convection is evident within 60 nm either 

side of the ITCZ between 110W and 120W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Recent altimeter satellite passes confirm large NW persists off

Baja California Norte, beyond 90 nm offshore, with wave heights 

at least 12 ft west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to fresh winds

continue off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, between 

high pressure north of the area, and lower pressure inland. 

Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas persist elsewhere 

across the open offshore waters of Mexico, with light breezes and

slight seas across the Gulf of California.



For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with large NW swell

will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west of Isla

Guadalupe into Sat, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere off

Baja. Moderate SW winds will pulse to fresh across the northern

Gulf of California tonight, ahead of a dissipating cold front 

moving into the region. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate 

winds will persist across Mexican offshore waters, along with 

moderate combined seas primarily in NW swell over open waters. 

Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish off Baja California 

late Thu into Sun as the high pressure NW of the area weakens 

and the swell subsides.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate SW flow well offshore is supporting a few clusters of 

showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters from western

Panama and off southwest Nicaragua. Mostly gentle to moderate 

breezes persist elsewhere across all of the offshore waters 

zones, with 3 to 5 ft combined seas primarily in SW swell.



For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 

expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late 

week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific

waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will continue tonight 

before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 

waters Tue into Wed. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is 

expected across the region Thu through Sat. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends from high pressure centered well north of 

the area southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 

ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of 05N 

and west of 120W. Earlier altimeter satellite passes confirmed 

combined seas of 7 to 10 ft from 05N to 25N west of 130W. Fresh 

to strong NW to N winds are noted north of 25N between 120W and 

130W between the high pressure and lower pressure farther east. 

NW swell of 8 to 12 ft accompanies these winds. Farther south, a 

weak surface trough continues to move slowly westward along the 

ITCZ near 130W, but has also shift west of its supporting upper 

trough along 120W. Divergent flow aloft between this upper trough

and and upper ridge farther east is working with low level trade

wind convergence to support clusters of shower and thunderstorms

along the ITCZ between 100W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds 

and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell persist elsewhere. 



For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern or

resultant conditions are expected through mid week. Winds and

seas will diminish later in the week as the high pressure

weakens ahead of an approaching cold front. 



$$

Christensen