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ABIO10 PGTW 010230

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

REISSUED/010230Z-011800ZMAY2024//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010151ZMAY2024//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

6.7S 46.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 44.8E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM NORTH-

NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN

AMSR2 302208Z 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING AND DEEPENING

CONVECTION AND A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF

TURNING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS

WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (29-30C) SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY

LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC

MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND

DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS MORE WESTWARD

TOWARD THE COAST OF TANZANIA WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE

IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO

HIGH.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//

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