####018003797####
AXNT20 KNHC 011009

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Wed May 1 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1000 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of

Senegal near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 04N23W. The 

ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection

is active S of 06N and E of 32W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting gentle to 

moderate SE winds across the Gulf, except west of the Yucatan 

Peninsula where locally fresh NE winds are noted. 3 to 5 ft 

combined seas are noted across the basin. Light to moderate smoke 

from agricultural fires over southern Mexico is creating hazy 

conditions for much of the southwest Gulf.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and 

lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will support fresh to strong 

pulsing winds in the western half of the Gulf Wed night into the 

weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the eastern half

of the basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds nightly near and 

to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by

a thermal trough.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A 1019 mb high pressure north of the area supports moderate to 

fresh easterly trade winds over much of the Caribbean basin. Fresh

to strong winds are pulsing in the offshore waters of southern 

Hispaniola, as verified by latest scatterometer data.

Scatterometer data also noted mainly gentle winds over the NW 

Caribbean. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the eastern and 

central basin, with 3 to 5 ft seas in the NW basin. 



For the forecast, the ridge is expected to slide eastward and 

weaken some over the next few days, resulting in mainly gentle to 

moderate trade winds through the week and into the weekend. 

Northerly swell will support rough seas through the the NE 

Caribbean passages until this afternoon. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



1019 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and northeast 

Florida near 30N68W. To the east, a cold front extends from 

31N49W to 28N64W. Another cold front extends from 32N36W to

26N40W. Scattered showers are noted along the fronts. A recent 

scatterometer satellite pass indicated that fresh winds prevail 

off the north coast of Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and across the 

Old Bahama Channel north of eastern Cuba. Buoy observations and 

latest altimeter satellite data show combined seas of 8-10 ft are 

affecting the waters N of 28N and E of 60W. A scatterometer pass 

showed fresh to strong SW winds north of 29N between 45W and 50W, 

ahead of the weak cold front east of Bermuda. Moderate winds and 

seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, high pressure 

west of the Azores is supporting a large area of fresh to strong 

NE winds and 8 to 9 ft over the eastern Atlantic.



For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 

will continue over the waters S of 22N and W of 60W through today,

including in the approaches of the Windward Passage. The high 

pressure will move eastward while slowly weakening. A surface 

trough may develop just N of Hispaniola over the next 48 hours and

move east toward the waters just north of Puerto Rico by the end 

of the work week.



$$

ERA