####018004579####
AXPZ20 KNHC 011556

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Wed May 1 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1530 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 12N90W to 07N110W to

09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 09N130W to 1007 mb low

pressure near 07N138W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection

is active within 90 nm either side of monsoon trough between 

100W and 105W and 112W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is

evident from 08N to 10N between 123W and 128W, and from 06N to

08N between 138W and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



An Altika altimeter satellite pass indicated 8 to 11 ft combined

seas west over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, west

of Guadalupe Island. This NW swell associated with strong winds

off southern California, between high pressure over the northeast

Pacific and lower pressure inland. Moderate to fresh winds are

also noted off Baja California. An overnight scatterometer

satellite pass indicated fresh winds funneling off Cabo San

Lucas. Overnight fresh winds across the northern Gulf of

California are diminishing. Gentle to moderate winds persist 

elsewhere, with moderate seas primarily in NW swell in open

waters. 



For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with 

large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west

of Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds 

elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds 

will persist across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate 

combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. Looking 

ahead, winds and seas will begin to diminish off Baja California 

late Thu into Sun as the high pressure NW of the area weakens and

the swell subsides. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Divergent flow aloft is supporting clusters of showers and

thunderstorms along the monsoon trough off western Panama and

southwest Costa Rica, and along the coast of Colombia. Earlier 

satellite scatterometer data suggests winds are light to gentle 

across most of the area waters, except near convection. Seas are 

4 to 5 ft in new S swell, except between the Galapagos Islands 

and Ecuador, where altimeter data shows 6 to 7 ft seas.



For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure gradient will 

support light to gentle breezes with moderate SW swell through 

the period, with slightly higher swell off Ecuador Fri.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends from high pressure centered well north of 

the area, southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge 

is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of 10N and 

west of 120W. Earlier satellite altimeter data confirmed 

combined seas of 7 to 9 ft from 07N to 15N west of 120W. Fresh 

to strong NW to N winds are noted north of 28N between 120W and 

130W, between the high pressure and lower pressure inland. NW 

swell of 8 to 12 ft accompanies these winds. Farther south, a 

1007 mb surface low is moving slowly westward along the ITCZ 

near 07N138W, and continues to produce scattered thunderstorms, 

mainly along the ITCZ with and ahead of it. Divergent flow aloft 

between a middle level trough extending from southern Baja 

California to near 10N140W, and an upper ridge farther east is 

working with low level trade wind convergence to support clusters

of shower and thunderstorms along the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate 

winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell persist 

elsewhere. 



For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern or

resultant conditions are expected through early Fri. Winds and 

seas will diminish Fri into Sat as the high pressure to the 

north weakens ahead of an approaching cold front. Looking ahead,

this cold front is expected to move southward into the northern

waters Sat evening, and reach from Baja Norte to 25N140W by Sun

evening. Moderate NW swell will follow the front.



$$

Christensen