####018004196#### AXPZ20 KNHC 020305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu May 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Costa Rica near 09N83W to 13N95W and to 08N107W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N107W to 09N120W and to 10N133W. 1007 mb low pres near 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 14N and west of 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An extensive 1029 mb high pressure system near 35N139W dominates the Mexican offshore waters, extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in southern California support moderate to fresh northerly winds over much of the Baja California offshore waters, with the strongest winds occurring in the far NW waters and nearshore Baja California sur, south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are 8-12 ft north of Punta Eugenia and 5-8 ft in the remaining waters of offshore Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are found in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west of Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds will continue across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. Winds and seas will begin to diminish off Baja California Sat and Sun as the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell subsides. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California Norte offshore waters late Sun, then stall and dissipate Mon. Another round of large NW swell may follow the front. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Divergence aloft and tropical moisture continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Colombia and Panama. Some of the storm activity is also affecting the nearshore waters and along the monsoon trough. A weak pressure pattern north of the area allows for light to gentle S-SW winds over much of the region. Southerly swell generates seas of 4-6 ft across most of the basin, except for slight seas in the Gulf of Panama and east of 79W. For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure gradient will support light to occasionally moderate breezes with moderate SW swell into early next week, with slightly higher swell off Ecuador Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high pressure system north of the area dominates the remaining waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between the ridge and and lower pressures in southern California and the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE-E winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, expect little change in the pattern or resultant conditions into Fri. Winds and seas will start to diminish thereafter as the high pressure north of the area dissipates ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move south of 30N late Sat, and then gradually weaken as it moves southward across the waters north of 24N through Mon. $$ Delgado ####018004216#### AXPZ20 KNHC 020309 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu May 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Costa Rica near 09N83W to 13N95W and to 08N107W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N107W to 09N120W and to 10N133W. 1007 mb low pres near 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 14N and west of 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An extensive 1029 mb high pressure system near 35N139W dominates the Mexican offshore waters, extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in southern California and NW Mexico support moderate to fresh northerly winds over much of the Baja California offshore waters, with the strongest winds occurring in the far NW waters and nearshore Baja California Sur, south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are 8-12 ft north of Punta Eugenia and 5-8 ft in the remaining waters of offshore Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are found in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west of Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds will continue across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. Winds and seas will begin to diminish off Baja California Sat and Sun as the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell subsides. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California Norte offshore waters late Sun, then stall and dissipate Mon. Another round of large NW swell may follow the front. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Divergence aloft and tropical moisture continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Colombia and Panama. Some of the storm activity is also affecting the nearshore waters and along the monsoon trough. A weak pressure pattern north of the area allows for light to gentle S-SW winds over much of the region. Southerly swell generates seas of 4-6 ft across most of the basin, except for slight seas in the Gulf of Panama and east of 79W. For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure gradient will support light to occasionally moderate breezes with moderate SW swell into early next week, with slightly higher swell off Ecuador Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high pressure system north of the area dominates the remaining waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between the ridge and and lower pressures in southern California and the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE-E winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, expect little change in the pattern or resultant conditions into Fri. Winds and seas will start to diminish thereafter as the high pressure north of the area dissipates ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move south of 30N late Sat, and then gradually weaken as it moves southward across the waters north of 24N through Mon. $$ Delgado