####018004208#### AXPZ20 KNHC 021515 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu May 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 07N77W to 12N95W to 09N105W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N105W to 04N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 01N to 07N east of 80W, and within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W and 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad subtropical ridge well northwest of the offshore waters of Mexico continues to dominate the region. Overnight scatterometer satellite passes indicate mostly moderate northerly winds persist off Baja California. Concurrent altimeter satellite data indicated combined seas of 8 to 11 ft, mainly beyond 90 nm offshore and reaching as far south as almost off Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, with moderate seas primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west of Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds will continue across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. Winds and seas will begin to diminish off Baja California Sat and Sun as the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell subsides. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California Norte offshore waters late Sun, then stall and dissipate Mon. Another round of large NW swell may follow the front. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Favorable conditions aloft and abundant tropical moisture continue to support scattered showers and strong thunderstorms over off the Pacific coast of Colombia. Overnight scatterometer satellite passes showed gentle to moderate southerly winds over much of the area. Southerly swell generates seas of 4-6 ft across the basin, except for slight seas in the Gulf of Panama and east of 79W. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will sustain light to moderate winds and moderate seas through the middle of next week, with slightly higher swell off Ecuador Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad subtropical ridge north of the area dominates the remaining waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and and lower pressures in southern California and the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh N winds north of 28N and east of 130W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are found in the rest of the basin north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Northerly swell support seas of 8-11 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, with the highest seas occurring near 30N123W. A recent altimeter pass captured seas to 11 ft near 30N119w. Moderate to locally fresh SE-E winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, little change is expected to occur to the overall weather pattern or resultant conditions into Fri. Winds and seas will start to diminish thereafter as the high pressure north of the area dissipates ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move south of 30N late Sat, and then gradually weaken as it moves southward across the waters north of 24N through Mon. Farther south, southerly swell of 8-9 ft will get almost as far north as the equator between 110W and 120W Sat into Sun, before subsiding. $$ Christensen