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TWDPQ 



Tropical Weather Discussion

National Weather Service Tiyan GU

500 AM ChST Fri May 3 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between

the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is

based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,

and meteorological analysis.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



None.



...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...



NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...

A Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) enters the region at 3N130E, to then 

extend eastward across the southern extents of Republic of Palau to 

end at a poorly organized disturbance near 1N143E in southern Yap 

State. Moderate to occasionally deep convection is associated with 

this feature, with most of the showers and thunderstorms concentrated

within a trade- wind surge along the northern peripheries of said

disturbance, and northward from trough axis across much of western 

Micronesia.



TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...

The troughs are difficult to distinguish from the background trade-

wind pattern across central and eastern Micronesia, being generally

short-lived in nature. The two most distinguishable features are

producing broadly scattered showers and some thunderstorms over 

Kapingamarangi in southern Pohnpei State, and across a wide area

east-southeast of Kosrae across much of southern Marshalls and

northern Kiribati.



...DISCUSSION...

A moderately active trade-wind regime will continue across much of

the region through at least the first half of next week, with various

trade-wind troughs pushing west along the streamflow. The environment

in which the aforementioned disturbance is situated in, continues to

become much more favorable for lingering vorticity features, as 

shear tendency continues to decrease, in addition to enhanced lower-

level convergence observed well south of Eauripik. Both deterministic

and probabilistic model guidance continue to struggle to extrapolate

from the current environmental conditions, most likely due to 

climatological bias integrated within said initialization parameters.

Even so, any possible development within this region will continue to

be monitored by various agencies over the coming weeks.



$$



Montvila