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AXPZ20 KNHC 031518

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Fri May 3 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from near 09N84W to 06N95W to 09N105W

to 06N115W. The ITCZ extends from 06N115W to 05N120W to 04N135W.

Scattered moderate convection from 03N to 05N between 80W and

85W, from 05N to 07N between 92W and 96W, and within 30 nm

either side of ITCZ between 102W and 108W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A broad subtropical ridge well northwest of the offshore waters

of Mexico continues to dominate the region. Recent scatterometer

data indicate moderate northerly winds persist off Baja California.

Earlier altimeter data indicated combined seas of 8 to 10 ft, 

mainly beyond 90 nm offshore and reaching as far south as almost 

off Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, 

with moderate seas in NW swell.



For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds will persist off Baja 

California Norte mainly west of Isla Guadalupe into tonight, with

gentle to moderate winds elsewhere off Baja. Accompanying large

swell well offshore will reach as far south as Cabo San Lazaro

into Sat, then subside. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will

continue across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate 

combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. Winds and 

seas will diminish off Baja California this weekend as the high 

pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell subsides. Looking 

ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California Norte 

offshore waters by late Sun, then stall and dissipate Mon. Large 

NW swell may follow the front. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Favorable conditions aloft and abundant tropical moisture 

continue to support scattered showers and strong thunderstorms 

over off the Pacific coast of Colombia. Latest scatterometer 

data depicts gentle to moderate southerly winds over much of the

area. Southerly swell continues to generate seas of 4-6 ft 

across the basin.



For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will sustain light to

moderate winds and moderate seas through the middle of next week, 

with slightly higher swell off Ecuador today and tonight.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A broad subtropical ridge north of the area dominates the 

remaining waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure 

gradient between the ridge and and lower pressures in southern 

California and the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh N 

winds north of 27N and east of 125W. Moderate to fresh NE-E 

winds are expected in the rest of the basin north of the ITCZ 

and west of 130W. Northerly swell support seas of 8-9 ft north of

the ITCZ and west of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 

and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, little change is expected to the overall 

weather pattern or resultant conditions today. Winds and seas 

will start to diminish thereafter as the high pressure north of 

the area dissipates ahead of an approaching cold front. The front

will move south of 30N late Sat, then gradually weaken as it 

moves southward across the waters north of 24N through Mon. 

Farther south, southerly swell of 8-9 ft will get almost as far 

north as the equator between 110W and 120W this weekend, before 

subsiding.



$$

Christensen