####018002605####
AXPQ20 PGUM 032115

TWDPQ 



Tropical Weather Discussion

National Weather Service Tiyan GU

715 AM ChST Sat May 4 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between

the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is

based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,

and meteorological analysis.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



None.



...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...



NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...

A Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) hangs close to the equator in 

western Micronesia, entering the region at 3N130E, passing 

through a series of weak embedded circulations roughly centered at

1N131E, 3N139E, and 1N150E, before crossing the equator at 151E. 

Moderate to deep convection is associated with this feature,

mainly near the aforementioned circulations. 



TRADE-WIND TROUGHS... 

A series of trade-wind troughs are found across western 

Micronesia, stemming from the embedded circulations in the NET,

discussed in the previous section. Clusters of showers and a few

thunderstorms are seen along the axis and with low-level 

convergence trailing these features. This spans across the 

southern parts of Palau, Yap, and Chuuk States. In eastern 

Micronesia, scattered showers are found along a trough between 

Pohnpei and Kosrae. An area of sheared, moderate to deep 

convection is found across the southern Marshall Islands and north

Kiribati, where a couple of troughs are embedded within an area 

of trade-convergence.



FRONTAL BOUNDARY...

A short segment of a stationary front enters the region at 

25N139E, northwest of Iwo To, and exits the region at 25N150E.

A band of heavy showers and thunderstorms are found along and

within 150 miles north of this boundary.



...DISCUSSION...

A moderately active trade-wind regime will continue across much of

the region through at least the first half of next week, with various

trade-wind troughs propagating westward across eastern Micronesia

and along the northern section of the NET in western Micronesia.

The series of weak circulations within the NET are not expected to 

sustain themselves, however model guidance hints that a broad 

circulation may develop within the NET around the middle of next 

week. Additionally, a northward shift of the NET and the trailing 

trade-convergence is expected to bring more showery weather for 

much of Micronesia next week. 



The stationary front gradually drifts eastward and weakens, 

remaining close to the northern extent of the region. 



$$



IC