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AXPZ20 KNHC 042204

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sat May 04 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2145 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from low pressure in northern

Colombia, northwestward to across Central America to the coast

of far SE Mexico at 14N92W. It continues southwestward to 10N102W 

and to 08N110W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that 

it transitions to the ITCZ and to 07N126W and to beyond 06N140W.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within n

60 nm N of the ITCZ between 124W-127W. Scattered moderate

convection is within 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 133W-137W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Broad high pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The 

pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower 

pressure in Baja California is supporting mostly fresh northwest

winds offshore the peninsula N of Cabo San Lazaro and moderate 

to fresh northwest to north winds S of Cabo San Lazaro as seen in

a recent ASCAT satellite data pass over these waters. Seas with 

these winds are in the range of 5 to 7 ft due to NW swell. In the

Gulf of California, winds are light and variable over the 

central section, light west to northwest over the southern 

section and moderate south to southwest over the northern 

section. Seas over the Gulf are in the range of 2 to 3 ft, except

for slighter higher seas of 3 to 4 ft over the northern part. 

Gentle to moderate northwest winds continue over the southwestern

Mexican offshore waters along with moderate seas in NW swell. 

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are S of the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec to 14N, while light and variable winds are S of 14N. 

Seas of 4 to 6 ft in S swell are south of the Gulf. Similar 

conditions are over the offshore waters of Chiapas and Oaxaca.



For the forecast, the mostly fresh northwest winds N of Cabo San

Lazaro will increase to fresh to strong speeds Sun evening 

through Mon morning, and the moderate northwest to north winds S

of Cabo San Lazaro will increase to fresh speeds as a cold front

enters the Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of 

California. Fresh to strong southwest winds are also forecast for

the northern Gulf of California starting this evening and again 

on Sun evening. Moderate to fresh winds across the Baja offshore

waters will then diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue night

through Thu. Large NW swell with seas to around 11 ft will 

follow the front, and impact the offshore waters N of Cabo San 

Lazaro Mon evening into Thu. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate light to gentle 

southwest to west winds over the offshore waters of Guatemala, El

Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica. Seas over those waters are in

the range of 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Satellite imagery shows 

scattered showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters of 

Costa Rica, just offshore Colombia and scattered showers and 

isolated thunderstorms along and within 30 to 60 nm offshore 

Nicaragua. The scatterometer data also indicates light to gentle 

southwest to west winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Light

to gentle southwest winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to 

moderate southerly winds are present S of the monsoon trough 

along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, including the waters S of the 

Galapagos Islands.



Scattered showers and thunderstorms are S of Costa Rica and W of

Colombia from 05N to 09N between 78W and 87W.



For the forecast, the gentle to moderate south to southwest 

winds S of the monsoon trough over the Central America offshore 

waters and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will

continue through the next few days. Light to gentle variable 

winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with moderate seas due

to a S swell. Otherwise, seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos 

Islands will change little well into next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



In general, broad high pressure resides over this part of the

area, and is basically controlling the wind flow regime over the

waters N of about 09N and west of about 120W. The pressure 

gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures

to the E from southern California to the Gulf of California is 

allowing for mostly moderate northwest to north winds to exist N 

of 25N and east of 124W. Over the western part of the area, 

latest ASCAT satellite data passes reveal fresh to strong trade 

winds from 10N to 14N W of 136W. Seas with these winds are 9 to 

10 ft. Elsewhere from 09N to 19N and W of 126W the trade winds 

are at fresh speeds, with seas 8 to 9 ft due to a combination of 

wind generated waves with long-period N to NE swell. Elsewhere, 

moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds over the 

western part of the area will predominately be at fresh speeds 

late Sun night and change little through mid-week. Seas with 

these winds will be to 8 ft at that same time, but in a decaying 

trend. A weak cold front will drop S of 30N this evening, then 

gradually weaken as it moves southward across the waters N of 23N

through early Mon. NW swell following the front will impact the 

waters mainly N of 25W and E of 132W by late on Wed and through 

Thu before it decays. Seas produced by the swell are expected to

be of 8 to 11 ft before subsiding to 8 ft late on Thu. 



$$

Aguirre