####018004422#### AXPZ20 KNHC 051000 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure in northern Colombia to across Central America near 11N85W to a 1009 mb low near 08N105W to 08N120W. The ITCZ begins near 08N120W to 08N130W to beyond 05N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 14N E of 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 113W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in Baja California is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds offshore the peninsula. Seas with these winds are in the range of 5 to 6 ft due to NW swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are light and variable S of 30N along with seas to 2 ft while gentle to moderate SW winds are ongoing N of 30N with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters winds are light to gentle from the NW with moderate seas to 6 ft in mixed S and NW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro will increase to fresh to strong speeds this evening through Mon morning while S of Cabo San Lazaro fresh winds will dominate as a cold front enters the Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong SW winds will pulse again this evening in the northern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds across the Baja offshore waters will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue night through Thu. Large NW swell with seas to around 11 ft will follow the front, and impact the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Mon evening into Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft dominate the Central America offshore waters and the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, except for seas to 7 ft S of 02S. Widely scattered showers are across the offshore zones of Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds S of the monsoon trough over the Central America offshore waters and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will dominate the next few days. Light to gentle variable winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with moderate seas due to a S swell. Otherwise, seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands will change little well into next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... In general, broad high pressure resides over this part of the area, and is basically controlling the wind flow regime over the waters N of about 09N and west of about 120W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures to the E from southern California to the Gulf of California is allowing for moderate to fresh N to NE winds to exist N of 17N between the Baja California offshore boundary to 140W. Over the far western tropical waters fresh trade winds prevail extending N of the ITCZ to 17N and W of 130W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the western part of the tropical waters will prevail through mid-week. Seas with these winds will be to 8 ft at that same time, but in a decaying trend. A weak cold front will continue to move S-SE today then gradually weaken as it moves southward across the waters N of 23N through early Mon. NW swell following the front will impact the waters mainly N of 25W and E of 132W by late on Wed and through Thu before it decays. Seas produced by the swell are expected to be 8 to 11 ft before subsiding to 8 ft late on Thu. $$ Ramos ####018004181#### AXNT20 KNHC 051002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun May 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 02N35W and to 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N and between 22W and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Convection in the NW Gulf of Mexico associated an upper level trough has dissipated early this morning, but additional thunderstorms may impact Texas coastal waters today. Moderate to fresh E winds dominate most of the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. However, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail north of a line from the Florida Keys to Louisiana. Smoke from agricultural fires over portions of southern Mexico is leading to reduced visibility and hazy conditions over parts of the SW and west- central Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in moderate to fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf through late week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night through late week off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft associated with an upper level trough N of the Lesser Antilles combined with abundant tropical moisture is resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the north-central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The trough will gradually weaken and move farther NE of the area, but atmospheric conditions will remain favorable for convection capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to Puerto Rico today. See local weather advisories for more information. Mainly fresh east winds are being observed in the SE, north- central, and NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Elsewhere winds are mainly gentle. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades over the SE Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse nightly in the Windward Passage into the middle of the week. A surface trough that had been impacting the north-central and NE basin has finally lifting NE and out of the area ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 30N55W to 27N68W. No convection is directly associated with this front, but a mid and upper-level trough centered E of the front is inducing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm on either side of a line from 31N45W to 22N58W. Moderate mainly N winds are noted N of the front, with moderate to fresh E winds ahead of the front W of 65W. Weak high pressure dominates most of the waters to the E of 65W, but another modest cold front extends from 31N42W to 25N50W. Ahead of this front, to 35W, fresh SW winds prevail. Fresh NE winds are occurring off the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara, as well as in the vicinity of the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, with some 7 ft seas where winds are fresh. Waters S of 19N are dominated by moderate trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will drop southward over the eastern and central waters today and tonight. The front will move east of the area early this week, but some rough seas are expected behind it, N of 25N and E of 59W, through the middle of the week. $$ Konarik