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AXPZ20 KNHC 051546

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sun May 5 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1530 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near

09N84W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 08N105W to 06N109W. The

ITCZ extends from 06N109W to 09N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered

moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N

between 115W and 129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted

from 05N to 13N between 81W and 104W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Broad high pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The 

pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower 

pressure in Baja California is supporting moderate to fresh 

NW winds offshore the peninsula. Seas with these winds are in 

the range of 5 to 6 ft within NW swell. In the Gulf of 

California, winds are light and variable S of 30N along with 

seas to 2 ft. N of 30N in the northern Gulf, gentle to moderate 

SW winds are ongoing with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere in the S and 

SW Mexican offshore waters winds are light to gentle from the NW 

with moderate seas to 6 ft in mixed S and NW swell.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San 

Lazaro will increase to fresh to strong speeds this evening 

through early Mon morning. South of Cabo San Lazaro, fresh winds

will dominate as a cold front enters the Baja California Norte 

and the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong SW winds 

will pulse again this evening in the northern Gulf of California.

Moderate to fresh winds across the Baja offshore waters will 

diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue night through Thu. 

Large NW swell with seas to around 11 ft will follow the front, 

and impact the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Mon evening 

into Thu. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo. Meanwhile, light

to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft 

dominate the rest of the the Central America offshore waters and

the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Widely 

scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the offshore 

zones of Costa Rica to Colombia.  



For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds S 

of 07N will dominate the next few days. Light to gentle variable

winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with moderate seas due 

to a S swell. Otherwise, seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos 

Islands will change little well into next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A cold front extends across the northern waters from 14N121W to

28N140W. Moderate N winds are noted behind the front. Otherwise,

high pressure extends across the area and is influencing the wind

flow regime. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and

relatively lower pressures from southern California to the Gulf 

of California is allowing for moderate to fresh N to NE winds N 

of the ITCZ and W of 110W. Seas range 5 to 8 ft within mixed

swell. South of the ITCZ, gentle and moderate winds are noted

with seas 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the western part of the

tropical waters will prevail through mid-week. Seas with these 

winds will be to 8 ft and will subside by Wed. A weak cold front

will continue to move S-SE today then gradually weaken as it 

moves southward across the waters N of 23N through early Mon. NW 

swell following the front will impact the waters mainly N of 25W 

and E of 132W by late on Wed and through Thu, bringing to 11 ft.

The swell will subside below 8 ft by Thu. 



$$

AReinhart