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AXNT20 KNHC 051609

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Sun May 5 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1600 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of 

Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N15W. 

The ITCZ extends eastward from 06N15W to 02N48W. Scattered 

moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N 

and west of 14W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas 

dominate most of the basin. Smoke from agricultural fires in 

portions of southern Mexico is reducing visibility and creating 

hazy conditions across parts of the southwest and west-central 

Gulf of Mexico.



For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the 

southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in moderate to fresh SE

winds across much of the Gulf through late week. Fresh to locally

strong winds will pulse at night through late week off the 

northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural 

fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central

Gulf.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of 

the Lesser Antilles, combined with abundant tropical moisture, is 

resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms across the north- 

central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The trough will gradually 

weaken and move farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric 

conditions will remain favorable for convection capable of 

producing gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week. 

Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to 

Puerto Rico today. See local weather advisories for more 

information. 



Moderate to locally fresh E winds and slight to moderate seas are

observed in the eastern and central Caribbean, including the 

Windward Passage. Elsewhere, gentle winds and slight seas are 

prevalent. 



For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western 

Atlantic is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades over the 

SE Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse nightly

in the Windward Passage into the middle of the week. A surface 

trough that had been impacting the north-central and NE basin has 

finally lift NE and out of the area, taking showers and 

thunderstorms with it.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A weak cold front extends from a 1017 mb low near 27N58W to 

26N70W to 30N75W. No convection is directly associated with this 

front. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas are 

noted north of the front, while gentle or weaker NE to E winds and

slight seas are found south of the front. 



Further east, another modest cold front extends from 31N41W to 

22N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the 

front to 35W, and north of 22N. Ahead of the front to 33W, 

moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are present. Off the 

coast of Morocco, Western Sahara, and in the vicinity of the 

Canary and Cabo Verde Islands moderate to fresh NE winds are 

occurring. Moderate seas are found in these waters, with the 

highest seas found where winds are fresh. Waters south of 19N are 

dominated by moderate trades and moderate seas. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front extending from 

27N58W to 26N70W to 30N75W will gradually dissipate as it drifts 

southward through tonight. High-pressure building north of the 

area in the wake of the front will support fresh trade winds south

of 24N through midweek. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with 

a gale center well north of the region over the north-central 

Atlantic will move through the waters north of 27N and east of 60W

Mon night through Tue night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to 

fresh SW winds off northeast Florida as the high pressure shifts 

southeast ahead of a front moving off the Carolinas.



$$

Nepaul