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AXPQ20 PGUM 052025

TWDPQ 



Tropical Weather Discussion

National Weather Service Tiyan GU

625 AM ChST Mon May 6 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between

the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is

based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,

and meteorological analysis.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



None.



...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...



NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...

ASCAT Analysis shows a Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) over far 

southern Palau that runs thru a weak circulation near 4N136E and 

thru another weak circulation near 1N145E and farther eastward 

thru a third very weak circulation southeast of Kosrae at about 

2N168E. Trade wind convergence on the north side of the NET is 

producing showers and some thunderstorms in patchy areas between

about 3N and 7N from the Marshall Islands westward across Kosrae,

Pohnpei and Chuuk States and southeastern Yap State and southern 

parts of the Republic of Palau.



OTHER SYSTEMS...

Farther north, a frontal boundary curves southwestward from a low

pressure centered at 25N156E down to 21N150E then westward as it 

gradually dissipates by 21N140E. Heavy cloudiness along with 

spotty showers and thunderstorms are seen north of 20N from 150E 

to 165E to beyond 25N.



...DISCUSSION...

The NET and embedded weak circulations over southwest Micronesia 

will be monitored carefully in the coming days. Models differ in 

the forecast details quite a bit, but GFS is quite aggressive and 

indicates a circulation could further develop over southeast Yap 

State late this week, and GFS then moves the circulation toward 

the northwest. Other models are less aggressive, so uncertainty 

remains high.



The frontal system and low Pressure far northwest of Wake Island 

and north of the Mariana Islands is expected to gradually weaken

and drift toward west to northwest around the periphery of a high

pressure ridge farther north.



$$



Simpson